If you follow college football, click on this link and save that page. Every game this year, with kickoff times and tv schedules set. Here are some games to watch in week 1. Yes, it's still a bit early and I was going to wait and do this every Wednesday starting next week, but I haven't seen a meaningful sporting event in over 2 months and I'm bored. So I'll start a week early.
Not unlike most opening weekends, you've got a bunch of cupcake platters with a few great games mixed in.
TCU @ Baylor (Fri. 7:00 P.M. ESPN): Baylor Quarterback Robert Griffin is one of the Big 12's top QB's and he has his top 5 receivers back this year. TCU is coming off a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin,
but only return 10 starters on both sides of the ball. Should be a close game in Waco.
South Florida @ Notre Dame (Sat. 2:30 P.M NBC): Is this the year Notre Dame finally lives up to expectations? I think so. 3 reasons why: 1) Brian Kelly wins. A lot. He went 34-6 in 4 seasons at Cincinnati. 2) A lot of coaches seem to make giant leaps in their 2nd year on the job. Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, and Jim Tressel all won BCS titles in year two. And 3) The Irish return 19 starters.
UNLV @ Wisconsin (Thurs. 7:00 P.M. ESPN): It's the first game of the year on ESPN, which is nice. Wisconsin returns a solid running game and is neck and neck with Nebraska as Big 10 favorites this year. QB transfer Russell Wilson could push the Badgers over the top this season.
Boise St. @ Georgia (Atlanta, 7:00 P.M ESPN): Boise State is good for one good upset a year. This would be it, except the Broncos are actually favored over SEC foe Georgia. Boise will probably win, but they still won't deserve a national title shot.
Oregon @ LSU (Dallas, 7:00 P.M ESPN):
It sucks these last two games are at the same time, because it's clearly the two best match ups of the weekend. This one's basically a toss up right now. I'll take the SEC over Oregon's speed any day, though.
After days of speculation -and just a year after the last A&M secession talks- SEC presidents held a meeting Sunday morning and said they aren't extending an invite to the Aggies. Not today, anyway.
"The SEC Presidents and Chancellors met today and reaffirmed our satisfaction with the present 12 institutional alignment. We recognize, however, that future conditions may make it advantageous to expand the number of institutions in the league. We discussed criteria and process associated with expansion. No action was taken with respect to any institution including Texas A&M.”
I'm guessing the last thing the SEC wants is a potential billion dollar lawsuit from Texas and/or the Big 12 for snatching A&M while the Aggies are members of the Big 12. An offer can't be made until the school is officially out of their conference, unless I'm mistaken. The Texas A&M Board of Regents is meeting Monday to discuss realignment and to give A&M power to make realignment decisions. With the SEC denying reports of an invitation, they're saving themselves and giving A&M a chance to leave the Big 12 and formally apply. In other words, today's statement from the SEC means absolutely nothing. The Aggies will be members of the SEC sooner rather than later.
A few weeks ago I made 11 predictions for the college football season. Well, one one of those has already come true. My number 7 prediction was that Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy would have another meltdown, like his famous press conference attack on a reporter in 2007. 2:00 minute mark
Well, he graced us with his presence again.
ESPN reported that a carpenter hired by Gundy showed up to his house wearing an Oklahoma baseball shirt and the coach was not flattered when he arrived home a few hours later. The carpenter is now suing Gundy for $10,000 in damages.
"According to the lawsuit, Gundy arrived at the house at 9:30 a.m. and spotted Loveland's shirt. "How dare you come into my house and offend my wife," Gundy allegedly said. Gundy then allegedly used profanity as he told the contractor to get off his property. He called Loveland a "stupid idiot" for wearing the shirt on "OSU soil," and refused Loveland's apologies. The contractor offered to turn his shirt inside-out, but was refused, according to the lawsuit."
I figured he would blow up sometime this season. I didn't think it would take just 10 days.
Thanks coach.
The 4 month NFL lockout was never really in jeopardy. There was just too much money at stake for both sides to miss any games this fall. Last year's conference winners -Packers and Steelers- are strong once again and joined by the usual suspects. While the AFC is wide open and the NFC has 3-4 teams capable of making a run in the playoffs, I only see 5 teams with a legitimate shot at winning it all. I added the Super Bowl odds as well. Here's an explanation of odds for our non-chronic gambling friends.
5) Saints (+1000) At 10/1 odds, I would take the Saints if I was a betting man, which of course I'm not. Reggie Bush is gone, released after the lockout and now in Miami. But with the 1st round pick of Alabama running back Mark Ingram and the signing of Darren Sproles, the backfield in New Orleans is solid. (Along with backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory) With Drew Brees under center, the passing game will never be average. I expect to see the Saints facing Green Bay in a snowy January NFC title game in Lambeau.
4) Chargers (+1000) It seems like the Chargers are always a sexy pick, every single year. Nobody cares if they bomb in the playoffs every season. Is this year any different? Maybe not, but they've made some noise in free agency this off-season, picking up safety Bob Sanders as well as linebacker Takeo Spikes. With receiver Vincent Jackson back for a full season and Philip Rivers under center, the offense will be solid.
3) Steelers (+800) In the 4 seasons since Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have 2 AFC titles including a SB crown in 2008. The defense has been a top 5 unit every year Tomlin has been head coach, and it won't change this fall.
2) Patriots (+300) The experts think the Pats will be joining the Packers in Super Bowl XLVI, and it's hard to disagree. A lot of people like the Steelers, but New England has more talent. The Patriots also have Tom Brady and Chad Ochocinco, which doesn't hurt. If Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth can stay in line, the AFC title is theirs to lose. The signing of defensive end Shaun Ellis was huge, whether his former coach liked it or not.
1) Packers (+350) I know it's hard to repeat. But Green Bay is as good a candidate for that distinction we've had in a while. The Super Bowl champs were without their starting running back, Ryan Grant all season after injuring his leg in week 1. Not only that, but top-5 Tight End Jermichael Finley missed all but 5 games due to injuries last year as well. The offense was stellar without those guys. It can be better this year. The Packers probably have a 5 year window where 2 more titles isn't out of the question.
I didn't forget the Eagles or any of their acquisitions such as cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, or receiver Steve Smith. I just don't see Mike Vick guiding them through the NFC. Vick's playoff record is a less than special 2-3, and he's only been to the conference title game once, in 2004.
Nobody loves the BCS. At least, I don't think anyone does. It's a step up from the previous system, much like an 87 Geo Metro is a step up from horse and buggy. You can do better.
If you follow college football and don't pay attention to Phil Steele, you should. His preseason magazine is gold. He wrote an article about the BCS mess and has advocated for a Plus-1 system to determine a champion for years. It makes sense. Too much, probably. So we'll never see it.
You keep the BCS rankings, but instead of placing the top 2 teams in the national title game, you take the top 4. At the end of the regular season and conference title games, you put 1 vs. 4 in a BCS bowl and 2 vs. 3 in another.
So last season, Auburn would have played Stanford in say, the Sugar Bowl. Oregon would have played TCU in the Rose Bowl. The semi-final locations would rotate between the 4 BCS Bowls: Sugar, Rose, Orange, Fiesta.
Take 2-3 weeks off for rest and mainly to get things worked out like ticket sales and travel arrangements for fans. The winners would play the bye week before the Super Bowl at whichever BCS bowl's turn it was. Last year would have been the Fiesta Bowl.
It takes virtually nothing away from the regular season because 1 loss could potentially knock you out of the final top 4. For the team that finished 5th, they had a chance to control their own destiny. And more to that point, Steele went back and looked at every 5th ranked team since the BCS started and none of them were in the same class as the top 4. The only years the system wouldn't have worked perfectly (4 out of 14 I believe) the top 2 teams were clearly the 2 best teams and deserved to play automatically. Even then, they would have probably won the semi-final games and played for the title anyway.
Teams 5-8 could still play in BCS bowls as well, just like the current system. Last year it would have looked something like this:
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Uconn
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Auburn vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. TCU
The winners of the Rose and Orange Bowls would have played 2-3 weeks later at a neutral site. We'd have none of this "TCU deserves a shot because they went undefeated too" nonsense. They would have a shot if they won their semifinal game.
An 8 game playoff could also work, but the Plus-1 system keeps the regular season as important as it's always been and it's the easiest system to transition to from the current format.
I had a few predictions heading into last football season. I thought South Carolina would win the SEC East. I said Auburn would beat the defending champs--Alabama--and win the SEC West, and that Alabama would lose at least 2 games. Surprising myself more than anyone, all of those came true. I figured I'll put them in stone this year, giving people a chance to laugh in my face in 5 months when I go 0-11 this time around.
11) The winner of the Big 10 will play for the National Championship. Ohio State and Penn State won't be bad by any means, but this looks to be Wisconsin and Nebraska's league to lose. Nebraska has really only one tough game all year, which happens to be against Wisconsin in Madison on Oct. 1. The Badgers have a tough game at Ohio State on Oct. 29, but they get Nebraska at home, which helps.
But I'm still leaning towards the Huskers.
10) South Carolina will win the SEC. This will be tough with both Alabama and LSU as title contenders this year, but if Steve Spurrier is ever going to lead South Carolina to a conference title, this is the year. Senior quarterback Stephen Garcia has plenty of experience and sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore is one of the best in the country. Along with the nation's No. 1 recruit --defensive end Jadeveon Clowney--- the defense won't be shabby.
9) Oregon will lose at least 2 games this fall. The Ducks were stifled against SEC foe Auburn in last year's BCS title game, and I don't see anything changing when they face LSU on Sept. 3 in Cowboys Stadium. They aren't physical enough to beat a big team from the SEC. They'll win the Pac 12, but only after dropping a head scratcher along the way. My guess is Stanford on Nov. 19.
8) 2011 won't be 2004. Seven years ago, USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn ended the year undefeated but the Tigers were left out, causing outrage in Auburn and I'm sure pissing off this guy.
If you want a playoff system, you need this to happen a few more times. Preferably with more teams. This year there's a handful of teams that could go undefeated. Alabama, LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Florida State come to mind. However, LSU and Alabama play each other in the SEC. One of them ain't going undefeated. Florida State and Oklahoma also play, effectively taking out two of those four teams immediately.
7) We see another one of these tirades from Mike Gundy:
It's time.
6) Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State Cowboys will lead the nation in scoring, but won't even finish 2nd in the Big 12. That's how good I think Texas A&M and Oklahoma will be this year. Last season, OSU finished 3rd in the nation in scoring and 2nd in yards per game. Quarterback Brandon Weeden and receiver Justin Blackmon return to Stillwater which will keep the offense running smoothly. The defense, however, was mediocre at best last season and probably won't improve enough in 2011.
5) Notre Dame will finally live up to expectations. Has there been a team that's lived up to preseason hype less than Notre Dame in the last 20 years? I don't think so. But with head coach Brian Kelly entering his second season in South Bend, this is the year that changes. A lot of coaches excel in their 2nd season on the job (OU's Bob Stoops, Florida's Urban Meyer, Ohio State's Jim Tressel all won the BCS title in their 2nd year at their respective schools). They return 9 starters on offense and 8 on defense, and I see them playing in a BCS bowl in January.
4) LSU's Les Miles won't survive past 2011, and the rest of the country will shake their heads. After winning the BCS title in 2007, Miles struggled the following 2 years losing 9 games, which probably felt like 20 in Baton Rouge. He rebounded last season, finishing 11-2 and winning the Cotton Bowl. However, with the violations the football program was just slapped with, Miles no longer has a buyout in his contract, meaning the school can fire him anytime and not pay him a dollar. Starting the season in the top 5 the Tigers have a chance to be really good. But any more than 2 losses and I think Miles is shown the door, and restless LSU fans (see below) will end up regretting the decision in 5 years.
"There's a Fine Line Between SEC Championship and Total Collapse. We Call Him Les."
3) Boise Statewill go undefeated again,and they still won't deserve a shot at the national title. The Broncos are 61-5 in the last 5 seasons, including undefeated years in 2006 and 2009. In 2006, they defeated Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, after posting impressive wins over teams like Louisiana Tech, Idaho, New Mexico State, and Wyoming. In 2009, they beat TCU in the Fiesta after another tough year with the likes of San Jose State, Miami of Ohio, and UC Davis on the schedule. They did beat Oregon to open the year, but that was followed by basically a 12-week buffet of borderline Division II competition. This year, they face Georgia in Atlanta. It will be a tough game and Boise will probably win it, but that won't make up for the following schedule to end the year:
Toledo
Tulsa
Nevada
Colorado State
Fresno State
Air Force
UNLV
TCU
San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico
I can think of at least 20 1-loss teams who would be more deserving of playing for the national title than an undefeated Boise State. If they want a shot, they can do what TCU just did. Improve the rest of their athletics/academics and join a major conference.
2) Florida State goes undefeated. The Sept. 17 game against top ranked Oklahoma will be tough, but it's a home game for the Seminoles. If they survive that, the rest of the schedule gives them a good shot at 13-0. After OU, the 2 roadblocks look like a Thursday night game at Boston College and the season finale traveling to Gainesville to take on Florida, who the Seminoles handled 31-7 last year. 8 starters return on both sides, and incoming quarterback EJ Manuel brings a lot of hype coming into 2011. And most likely, an undefeated season means one thing..
1) Florida State faces Nebraska in the BCS title game on January 9th. Head coach Bo Pelini has guided Nebraska to 3 bowl wins in 4 years in Lincoln. Quarterback Taylor Martinez was great on the ground in 2010, rushing for over 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns. Running back Rex Burkhead will probably get 80% of the carries early on, and finding a solid backup will be crucial for the run game. I predict Aaron Green will become that guy. The defense will be great once again, which shouldn't surprise anyone. If they can avoid another head scratching loss (9-6 loss to Texas A&M in 2010, 9-7 loss to Iowa State in 2009) and take care of Wisconsin on the road on Oct. 1, the Huskers should meet up with Florida State in New Orleans.
