Tanking for Luck Worth It?

I heard it a lot last weekend. Fans of downtrodden teams, fans of teams that came out terrible in week 1, or fans that just don't like their starting quarterback. The Titans, Chiefs, Colts (Yes, the Colts), and Seahawks come immediately to mind. If you're going to be awful - I heard- you might as well be the worst and have a shot at drafting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who will be almost certainly be the No. 1 pick in next April's NFL draft. The Heisman runner up, Orange Bowl MVP, All-American, etc. looks great, no doubt. But how good will he be in the NFL? Now I don't think any NFL team would deliberately lose a game -let alone multiple games- just to grab a better draft pick, but the fans' reactions were interesting. Would it really be worth it?

                                                                 I don't know

Here's the quarterbacks who were overall No. 1 picks since 1980:

2010: Sam Bradford--3,500 yards as a rookie, could eventually be a great QB. Too early to tell.

2009: Matt Stafford--22 TD's/22 INT's through 14 career starts. Also too early.

2007: Jamarcus Russell--Biggest bust of all time.

2005: Alex Smith--Mediocre at best. (Guys taken after Smith: Aaron Rodgers, Demarcus Ware)

2004: Eli Manning--Pro Bowler but will never be a top 5 QB in the league.

2003: Carson Palmer--A few really good to great years but he's not even playing right now. Contract issues in Cincinnati. (Andre Johnson, Troy Polamalu, Nnamdi Asomugha)

2002: David Carr--BUST (Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Ed Reed, Clinton Portis)

2001: Mike Vick-- Really good quarterback, only 2-3 playoff record though. Only 1 conference title game, which he lost. (Drew Brees)

1999: Tim Couch--BUST (Donovan McNabb, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey)

1998: Peyton Manning

1993: Drew Bledsoe-- 4 pro bowls, but just a 3-3 career playoff record (Jerome Bettis, Michael Strahan)

1990: Geoff George--BUST (Junior Seau)

1989: Troy Aikman

1987: Vinny Testaverde: Solid quarterback, but not close to the best player in that draft. (Rod Woodson, Cris Carter)

1983: John Elway


That's 3 QB's taken No. 1 overall who ended up being truly great, hall of fame quarterbacks. And only 4 of those guys won Super Bowls. -In the last 30 years, only 4 quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall have won a Superbowl- Now, you don't have to be a hall of famer to justify being chosen No. 1, but is possibly drafting a Jamarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Tim Couch, or Geoff George worth the risk of trying to draft the next John Elway?


Here's the last 15 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers-- 1st round, 24th pick
Drew Brees-- 2nd round, 32nd pick
Eli Manning--1st pick overall
Peyton Manning--1st pick overall
Ben Roethlisberger--1st round, 11th pick
Tom Brady--6th round, 199th pick
Brad Johnson--9th round, 227th pick
Trent Dilfer--1st round, 6th pick
Kurt Warner--Undrafted
John Elway--1st pick overall
Brett Favre--2nd round, 33rd pick
Troy Aikman--1st pick overall
Steve Young--Supplement draft
Mark Rypien--6th round, 146th pick
Jeff Hostetler--3rd round, 59th pick


Of the 2 quarterbacks who have won 3 rings in that time, one was the 1st overall pick (Aikman) and one was a 6th round pick (Brady.) So maybe Andrew Luck will be the next Elway. But there's a better chance he's average like Drew Bledsoe or just plain bad like Tim Couch. And there's an even BETTER chance he won't be the best player in the draft.  Be careful what you wish for.

Week 2 Games To Watch

Last week one of my picks was an instant classic. There's not any eye-popping match ups this week, however.

#3 Alabama @ #23 Penn State (Saturday 2:30 P.M ABC): Both teams have yet to settle on a starting quarterbacks, so if you like QB play be sure to watch this one. You'll see 4 throughout the game. Two ranked BCS foes going head-to-head in the non-conference slate is sometimes hard to find, so this game in Happy Valley should be a good one.

#21 Mizzou @ Arizona State (Friday 8:30 P.M. ESPN): Arizona State isn't ranked in this week's AP poll, but they are #23 in the coach's. Vegas isn't effected by the AP's ranking though, as the Sun Devils are 8 point favorites. Mizzou will probably go as far as freshman QB James Franklin will take them, and a hot Friday night contest in the desert will be tough.

Notre Dame @ Michigan (Saturday 7:00 P.M. ESPN): Notre Dame didn't help me out any last week, losing to South Florida at home 23-20. Michigan looked better against Western Michigan, but it was still Western Michigan. There's really not much to say about this game other than it being the first ever night game in the 84 year-old 'Big House' in Ann Arbor. That's enough of a reason to watch.

#12 South Carolina at Georgia (Saturday 2:30 P.M ESPN): Is Boise as good as they looked last week, or is Georgia just mediocre? Can South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia avoid controversy and stay on the field? We should know both after this conference opening game for both teams Saturday. If Garcia plays all year I still think South Carolina can win the SEC.

College Games to Watch Next Weekend

If you follow college football, click on this link and save that page. Every game this year, with kickoff times and tv schedules set. Here are some games to watch in week 1. Yes, it's still a bit early and I was going to wait and do this every Wednesday starting next week, but I haven't seen a meaningful sporting event in over 2 months and I'm bored. So I'll start a week early.

Not unlike most opening weekends, you've got a bunch of cupcake platters with a few great games mixed in.

TCU @ Baylor (Fri. 7:00 P.M. ESPN): Baylor Quarterback Robert Griffin is one of the Big 12's top QB's and he has his top 5 receivers back this year. TCU is coming off a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin,

but only return 10 starters on both sides of the ball. Should be a close game in Waco.

South Florida @ Notre Dame (Sat. 2:30 P.M NBC): Is this the year Notre Dame finally lives up to expectations? I think so. 3 reasons why: 1) Brian Kelly wins. A lot. He went 34-6 in 4 seasons at Cincinnati. 2) A lot of coaches seem to make giant leaps in their 2nd year on the job. Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, and Jim Tressel all won BCS titles in year two. And 3) The Irish return 19 starters.

UNLV @ Wisconsin (Thurs. 7:00 P.M. ESPN): It's the first game of the year on ESPN, which is nice. Wisconsin returns a solid running game and is neck and neck with Nebraska as Big 10 favorites this year. QB transfer Russell Wilson could push the Badgers over the top this season.

Boise St. @ Georgia (Atlanta, 7:00 P.M ESPN): Boise State is good for one good upset a year. This would be it, except the Broncos are actually favored over SEC foe Georgia. Boise will probably win, but they still won't deserve a national title shot.

Oregon @ LSU (Dallas, 7:00 P.M ESPN):

It sucks these last two games are at the same time, because it's clearly the two best match ups of the weekend. This one's basically a toss up right now. I'll take the SEC over Oregon's speed any day, though.

A&M to SEC Still Very Possible

After days of speculation -and just a year after the last A&M secession talks- SEC presidents held a meeting Sunday morning and said they aren't extending an invite to the Aggies. Not today, anyway.

"The SEC Presidents and Chancellors met today and reaffirmed our satisfaction with the present 12 institutional alignment. We recognize, however, that future conditions may make it advantageous to expand the number of institutions in the league. We discussed criteria and process associated with expansion. No action was taken with respect to any institution including Texas A&M.”

I'm guessing the last thing the SEC wants is a potential billion dollar lawsuit from Texas and/or the Big 12 for snatching A&M while the Aggies are members of the Big 12. An offer can't be made until the school is officially out of their conference, unless I'm mistaken. The Texas A&M Board of Regents is meeting Monday to discuss realignment and to give A&M power to make realignment decisions. With the SEC denying reports of an invitation, they're saving themselves and giving A&M a chance to leave the Big 12 and formally apply. In other words, today's statement from the SEC means absolutely nothing. The Aggies will be members of the SEC sooner rather than later.

1 Down, 10 To Go

A few weeks ago I made 11 predictions for the college football season. Well, one one of those has already come true. My number 7 prediction was that Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy would have another meltdown, like his famous press conference attack on a reporter in 2007.

                                                              2:00 minute mark

Well, he graced us with his presence again.

ESPN reported that a carpenter hired by Gundy showed up to his house wearing an Oklahoma baseball shirt and the coach was not flattered when he arrived home a few hours later. The carpenter is now suing Gundy for $10,000 in damages.

"According to the lawsuit, Gundy arrived at the house at 9:30 a.m. and spotted Loveland's shirt. "How dare you come into my house and offend my wife," Gundy allegedly said.
Gundy then allegedly used profanity as he told the contractor to get off his property. He called Loveland a "stupid idiot" for wearing the shirt on "OSU soil," and refused Loveland's apologies. The contractor offered to turn his shirt inside-out, but was refused, according to the lawsuit."


I figured he would blow up sometime this season. I didn't think it would take just 10 days.

Thanks coach.

5 NFL Contenders

The 4 month NFL lockout was never really in jeopardy. There was just too much money at stake for both sides to miss any games this fall. Last year's conference winners -Packers and Steelers- are strong once again and joined by the usual suspects. While the AFC is wide open and the NFC has 3-4 teams capable of making a run in the playoffs, I only see 5 teams with a legitimate shot at winning it all. I added the Super Bowl odds as well. Here's an explanation of odds for our non-chronic gambling friends.


5) Saints (+1000) At 10/1 odds, I would take the Saints if I was a betting man, which of course I'm not. Reggie Bush is gone, released after the lockout and now in Miami. But with the 1st round pick of Alabama running back Mark Ingram and the signing of Darren Sproles, the backfield in New Orleans is solid. (Along with backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory) With Drew Brees under center, the passing game will never be average. I expect to see the Saints facing Green Bay in a snowy January NFC title game in Lambeau.

4) Chargers (+1000) It seems like the Chargers are always a sexy pick, every single year. Nobody cares if they bomb in the playoffs every season. Is this year any different? Maybe not, but they've made some noise in free agency this off-season, picking up safety Bob Sanders as well as linebacker Takeo Spikes. With receiver Vincent Jackson back for a full season and Philip Rivers under center, the offense will be solid.

3) Steelers (+800) In the 4 seasons since Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have 2 AFC titles including a SB crown in 2008. The defense has been a top 5 unit every year Tomlin has been head coach, and it won't change this fall.

2) Patriots (+300) The experts think the Pats will be joining the Packers in Super Bowl XLVI, and it's hard to disagree. A lot of people like the Steelers, but New England has more talent. The Patriots also have Tom Brady and Chad Ochocinco, which doesn't hurt. If Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth can stay in line, the AFC title is theirs to lose. The signing of defensive end Shaun Ellis was huge, whether his former coach liked it or not.

1) Packers (+350) I know it's hard to repeat. But Green Bay is as good a candidate for that distinction we've had in a while. The Super Bowl champs were without their starting running back, Ryan Grant  all season after injuring his leg in week 1. Not only that, but top-5 Tight End Jermichael Finley missed all but 5 games due to injuries last year as well. The offense was stellar without those guys. It can be better this year. The Packers probably have a 5 year window where 2 more titles isn't out of the question.


I didn't forget the Eagles or any of their acquisitions such as cornerbacks  Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, or receiver Steve Smith. I just don't see Mike Vick guiding them through the NFC. Vick's playoff record is a less than special 2-3, and he's only been to the conference title game once, in 2004.

College Football Plus 1 System Would Work

Nobody loves the BCS. At least, I don't think anyone does. It's a step up from the previous system, much like an 87 Geo Metro is a step up from horse and buggy. You can do better.

If you follow college football and don't pay attention to Phil Steele, you should. His preseason magazine is gold. He wrote an article about the BCS mess and has advocated for a Plus-1 system to determine a champion for years. It makes sense. Too much, probably. So we'll never see it.


You keep the BCS rankings, but instead of placing the top 2 teams in the national title game, you take the top 4. At the end of the regular season and conference title games, you put 1 vs. 4 in a BCS bowl and 2 vs. 3 in another.

So last season, Auburn would have played Stanford in say, the Sugar Bowl. Oregon would have played TCU in the Rose Bowl. The semi-final locations would rotate between the 4 BCS Bowls: Sugar, Rose, Orange, Fiesta.

Take 2-3 weeks off for rest and mainly to get things worked out like ticket sales and travel arrangements for fans. The winners would play the bye week before the Super Bowl at whichever BCS bowl's turn it was. Last year would have been the Fiesta Bowl.

It takes virtually nothing away from the regular season because 1 loss could potentially knock you out of the final top 4. For the team that finished 5th, they had a chance to control their own destiny. And more to that point, Steele went back and looked at every 5th ranked team since the BCS started and none of them were in the same class as the top 4. The only years the system wouldn't have worked perfectly (4 out of 14 I believe) the top 2 teams were clearly the 2 best teams and deserved to play automatically. Even then, they would have probably won the semi-final games and played for the title anyway.

Teams 5-8 could still play in BCS bowls as well, just like the current system. Last year it would have looked something like this:

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Uconn
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio State

Rose Bowl: Auburn vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. TCU

The winners of the Rose and Orange Bowls would have played 2-3 weeks later at a neutral site. We'd have none of this "TCU deserves a shot because they went undefeated too" nonsense. They would have a shot if they won their semifinal game.

An 8 game playoff could also work, but the Plus-1 system keeps the regular season as important as it's always been and it's the easiest system to transition to from the current format.