Tanking for Luck Worth It?

I heard it a lot last weekend. Fans of downtrodden teams, fans of teams that came out terrible in week 1, or fans that just don't like their starting quarterback. The Titans, Chiefs, Colts (Yes, the Colts), and Seahawks come immediately to mind. If you're going to be awful - I heard- you might as well be the worst and have a shot at drafting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who will be almost certainly be the No. 1 pick in next April's NFL draft. The Heisman runner up, Orange Bowl MVP, All-American, etc. looks great, no doubt. But how good will he be in the NFL? Now I don't think any NFL team would deliberately lose a game -let alone multiple games- just to grab a better draft pick, but the fans' reactions were interesting. Would it really be worth it?

                                                                 I don't know

Here's the quarterbacks who were overall No. 1 picks since 1980:

2010: Sam Bradford--3,500 yards as a rookie, could eventually be a great QB. Too early to tell.

2009: Matt Stafford--22 TD's/22 INT's through 14 career starts. Also too early.

2007: Jamarcus Russell--Biggest bust of all time.

2005: Alex Smith--Mediocre at best. (Guys taken after Smith: Aaron Rodgers, Demarcus Ware)

2004: Eli Manning--Pro Bowler but will never be a top 5 QB in the league.

2003: Carson Palmer--A few really good to great years but he's not even playing right now. Contract issues in Cincinnati. (Andre Johnson, Troy Polamalu, Nnamdi Asomugha)

2002: David Carr--BUST (Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Ed Reed, Clinton Portis)

2001: Mike Vick-- Really good quarterback, only 2-3 playoff record though. Only 1 conference title game, which he lost. (Drew Brees)

1999: Tim Couch--BUST (Donovan McNabb, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey)

1998: Peyton Manning

1993: Drew Bledsoe-- 4 pro bowls, but just a 3-3 career playoff record (Jerome Bettis, Michael Strahan)

1990: Geoff George--BUST (Junior Seau)

1989: Troy Aikman

1987: Vinny Testaverde: Solid quarterback, but not close to the best player in that draft. (Rod Woodson, Cris Carter)

1983: John Elway


That's 3 QB's taken No. 1 overall who ended up being truly great, hall of fame quarterbacks. And only 4 of those guys won Super Bowls. -In the last 30 years, only 4 quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall have won a Superbowl- Now, you don't have to be a hall of famer to justify being chosen No. 1, but is possibly drafting a Jamarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Tim Couch, or Geoff George worth the risk of trying to draft the next John Elway?


Here's the last 15 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers-- 1st round, 24th pick
Drew Brees-- 2nd round, 32nd pick
Eli Manning--1st pick overall
Peyton Manning--1st pick overall
Ben Roethlisberger--1st round, 11th pick
Tom Brady--6th round, 199th pick
Brad Johnson--9th round, 227th pick
Trent Dilfer--1st round, 6th pick
Kurt Warner--Undrafted
John Elway--1st pick overall
Brett Favre--2nd round, 33rd pick
Troy Aikman--1st pick overall
Steve Young--Supplement draft
Mark Rypien--6th round, 146th pick
Jeff Hostetler--3rd round, 59th pick


Of the 2 quarterbacks who have won 3 rings in that time, one was the 1st overall pick (Aikman) and one was a 6th round pick (Brady.) So maybe Andrew Luck will be the next Elway. But there's a better chance he's average like Drew Bledsoe or just plain bad like Tim Couch. And there's an even BETTER chance he won't be the best player in the draft.  Be careful what you wish for.