Big 12 basketball starts tomorrow

The final season of the Big 12 as we know it begins tomorrow, with 5 conference matchups on the slate. Texas and Kansas will begin Big 12 play next week, as both schools finish up their non-conference schedules this weekend.

The Big 12 isn't as good as I thought it would be in October, but there are still a handful of good teams who can potentially make some noise in March. Here's how I think everything plays out:

1) Kansas: The Jayhawks are 14-0 and #3 in the latest polls while leading the nation in field goal percentage. Freshman guard Josh Selby has looked as good, if not better, than advertised, and the Morris twins have stepped up as well. Marcus is averaging 15 points a game while Markieff is grabbing 8 rebounds per. Foul trouble has been a problem though, and will be the only reason if Kansas doesn't make the final four in Houston. Prediction: Elite 8.

2) Texas: I've never been sold on Rick Barnes as a great head coach, but he certainly has the talent in Austin this season. Jordan Hamilton has been playing like an All-American, averaging 19 points and 6 rebounds a game. Freshman big man Tristan Thompson has played great also, averaging 12 ppg and 8 rpg, so talent won't be an issue for the Longhorns. Prediction: Sweet 16.

3) Missouri: I think Missouri's guards will win them enough games in the Big 12 to net a 3rd place finish, but the overall lack of inside presence won't get them higher than that, and could easily slip farther in the standings. Rebounding will kill the Tigers, who are currently 76th in the nation. In 2009, Mizzou's best season in a long time, Leo Lyons (6'9") and DeMarre Carroll (6'8") could handle the ball, run the press, and wreaked havoc on defense. The 2011 Tigers don't have anyone like that, and it will hurt them. Prediction: Sweet 16.

4) Texas A&M: The Aggies are a 2-point loss to Boston College away from being undefeated, and also have two wins over ranked teams already this year (#20 Temple, #22 Washington). A&M isn't really great at anything, they just know how to win. However, their inability to put away bad teams (beating Stephen F. Austin, McNeese St, and Nichols St by less than 12) doesn't bode well for conference play. Prediction: 2nd round.

5) Kansas State: The loss of senior guard Denis Clemente hurt more than any Wildcat fan wanted to admit. Clemente was the fastest Big 12 guard I saw in person last year, and he was the perfect compliment to pre-season AA Jacob Pullen, who is still scoring but is only getting 3 assists per game. The team can't shoot, sitting at only 44% from the field, but are 5th in the nation in rebounding. Prediction: Sweet 16.

6) Baylor: The Bears were my pick for second place before the season started, but they've lost to every decent team they've played. Losses to Gonzaga, Washington St, and Florida St. have dropped them from the top 25 and have questioned their ability to truly make up for the loss of center Ekpe Udoh, who left early for the NBA.  Prediction: 2nd round.

7) Iowa St: The Cyclones are 13-2 with wins over in-state rival Iowa as well as Virginia back in December. They've taken care of the cupcakes, with their only losses coming back-to-back against Norhern Iowa and Cal. First year coach Fred Hoiberg has looked good so far, and a NCAA tournament appearance is possible. Prediction: 1st round.

8) Nebraska: The Big 12 hasn't been kind to the Cornhuskers, who are still looking for their first ever win in the NCAA tournament. Head coach Doc Sadler might need an NCAA tournament appearance to save his job, but the loss of forward Christian Standhardinger really hurts the team going forward. Standhardinger was averaging 9 ppg before leaving the team in December. Prediction: NIT.

9) Oklahoma St.: Sitting at 12-2 is nice, but who have the Cowboys beat? Stanford and Alabama, and that's about it. Head coach Travis Ford is a year or two away from making a splash in the new Big 12. Prediction: NIT

10) Colorado: Sophomore Alec Burks is the best player nobody has heard about, averaging 19 points a game with a potential future in the NBA. That's about it for the Buffs, though, who can score with the best of them (84 points a game) but are allergic to defense. Prediction: NIT.

11) Texas Tech: The Red Raiders aren't very good. At all. They've already lost to North Texas, TCU, and UTEP. If head coach Pat Knight's last name wasn't Knight, he'd be coaching some NAIA school already. Nevertheless, he should be gone after this season. Prediction: Do they still have that CBI tournament? Who knows, maybe the Red Raiders can make that. Otherwise, they'll be sitting at home in March.

12) Oklahoma: Blake Griffin isn't walking through that door. The Sooners already have a nice five-game losing streak, including a four-point loss to Division II Chaminade in November.  Next year's recruiting class doesn't look promising either, so I'm not sure when things will improve in Norman. Prediction: No post-season.