Random NCAA musings

Selection Sunday is 3 weeks away. If I knew how to put a countdown on here, I would. But I can't, so trust me. It's 3 weeks away.

It seems like nobody wants that No. 1 ranking right now. After Wisconsin toppled previous No. 1 Ohio State last Saturday, Kansas took over on Monday, only to lose the same night to Kansas State. No. 2 Texas then proceeded to lose to Nebraska yesterday. I guess No. 4 Pittsburgh felt left out, because they also lost on Saturday, falling to St. Johns on a last second shot. Then after all that, Ohio State lost again today to Purdue. CBS tells me the last time the top 4 teams lost in the same week was in November of 2003. Not that being No. 1 means anything right now, but the race for a No. 1 seed is on.

I think we've got 5 teams fighting for the 1 seeds.

-Ohio State (25-2): 2 losses, but both on the road to top-15 teams. Losing 2 out of 3 would worry me, but I'm not a Buckeye fan and a 1 seed is still a lock.
-Kansas (25-2): Only one bad loss so far.
-Texas (23-4): Bad losses to USC and Nebraska, but nice wins over North Carolina and Kansas.
-Pittsburgh (24-3): Not any truly bad losses, and wins over Texas, Uconn, Georgetown, and Villanova.
-Duke (24-2): Bad loss to Florida State and got blown out by St. Johns last month. Taken care of everyone else though.

Finishing the regular season No. 1 doesn't matter, as the final No. 1 ranked team heading into the tournament has won it all only twice since 1996. But being a No. 1 seed is important. Since 2001, a No. 1 seed has won the title 7 times, including the last 4 years.


Want to make the Final Four? You better be a top 5 seed. Since 2001, only one team has made the Final Four that was lower than a 5-seed. That was 11-seed George Mason in 2006.

Here's the Final Four Appearances by seed the last 10 years:

1: 18 (7 national titles)
2: 9 (1 title)
3: 6 (2 titles)
4: 2 
5: 4
11: 1


Teams likely to be outside the top 4-seeds you don't want to see:
Big names:
 -Kentucky: They have enough raw talent (Potentially 3 first round picks this year in Doron Lamb, Brandon Knight and Terance Jones) to surprise anyone, and they're #9 according to KenPom.
-Washington: 10th in KenPom's rankings and they can score better than almost anyone. (2nd in the country with 85 points a game.)
-North Carolina: See Kentucky, but add a Hall of Fame coach.

Mid-majors you don't want to see:
-Utah State: Probable 9 or 10 seed who's hung around the top 25 all year and is currently 17th in KenPom.
-George Mason: 20th in KenPom with the nation's 25th best defense (61 points a game) and a coach with Final Four experience.
-UNLV: Wins over Virginia Tech and Kansas State and currently 28th in KenPom.
 -Cleveland State: No signature wins here, just a hunch. Norris Cole can score at ease, getting 20 points a game. His ability to do this, should put fear in the 3 or 4 seed which faces Cleveland State, assuming they make the tournament.