5 NFL Contenders

The 4 month NFL lockout was never really in jeopardy. There was just too much money at stake for both sides to miss any games this fall. Last year's conference winners -Packers and Steelers- are strong once again and joined by the usual suspects. While the AFC is wide open and the NFC has 3-4 teams capable of making a run in the playoffs, I only see 5 teams with a legitimate shot at winning it all. I added the Super Bowl odds as well. Here's an explanation of odds for our non-chronic gambling friends.


5) Saints (+1000) At 10/1 odds, I would take the Saints if I was a betting man, which of course I'm not. Reggie Bush is gone, released after the lockout and now in Miami. But with the 1st round pick of Alabama running back Mark Ingram and the signing of Darren Sproles, the backfield in New Orleans is solid. (Along with backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory) With Drew Brees under center, the passing game will never be average. I expect to see the Saints facing Green Bay in a snowy January NFC title game in Lambeau.

4) Chargers (+1000) It seems like the Chargers are always a sexy pick, every single year. Nobody cares if they bomb in the playoffs every season. Is this year any different? Maybe not, but they've made some noise in free agency this off-season, picking up safety Bob Sanders as well as linebacker Takeo Spikes. With receiver Vincent Jackson back for a full season and Philip Rivers under center, the offense will be solid.

3) Steelers (+800) In the 4 seasons since Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have 2 AFC titles including a SB crown in 2008. The defense has been a top 5 unit every year Tomlin has been head coach, and it won't change this fall.

2) Patriots (+300) The experts think the Pats will be joining the Packers in Super Bowl XLVI, and it's hard to disagree. A lot of people like the Steelers, but New England has more talent. The Patriots also have Tom Brady and Chad Ochocinco, which doesn't hurt. If Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth can stay in line, the AFC title is theirs to lose. The signing of defensive end Shaun Ellis was huge, whether his former coach liked it or not.

1) Packers (+350) I know it's hard to repeat. But Green Bay is as good a candidate for that distinction we've had in a while. The Super Bowl champs were without their starting running back, Ryan Grant  all season after injuring his leg in week 1. Not only that, but top-5 Tight End Jermichael Finley missed all but 5 games due to injuries last year as well. The offense was stellar without those guys. It can be better this year. The Packers probably have a 5 year window where 2 more titles isn't out of the question.


I didn't forget the Eagles or any of their acquisitions such as cornerbacks  Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, or receiver Steve Smith. I just don't see Mike Vick guiding them through the NFC. Vick's playoff record is a less than special 2-3, and he's only been to the conference title game once, in 2004.

Super Bowl XLV

I'm not really sure how the Packers made it this far. They've put 15 guys on injured reserve this year including pro-bowl talents Nick Barnett, Ryan Grant, and Jermichael Finley.

Somehow the injuries were overcome and Green Bay made the playoffs after winning its last two regular season games. After a close win over the Eagles, they destroyed Atlanta on the road before taking out the Bears in the NFC title game. Aaron Rodgers has a 6/2 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs and looked all-worldly in his lone start in a dome, (throwing for 3 TD's and 366 yards) which is obviously the same surface he'll be on for Sunday's game.

The Steelers are playing for a lot of history. Head coach Mike Tomlin can become the youngest head coach to win two Super Bowls. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger can join the ultra-exclusive 3-rings quarterback club. Pittsburgh has played two really tough playoff games so far, a 31-24 win over Baltimore and a 24-19 victory over the Jets in the AFC title game.

Both teams are led by the league's best defensive minds in Dick Lebeau and Dom Capers, and  both defenses have played great this post-season. This seems like an easy pick for a 17-14 defensive struggle, but I don't think so.

I picked the Packers over the Colts back in August, and there's no way I'm changing anything now.

                                                               31-24

Conference championship weekend

Could you get 4 better teams in the conference title games? Tradition, titles, and hall-of-famers falling off the bone here:

Bears: Home of the Super Bowl Shuffle, Bill Swerski's Super Fans, and 26 members in the Hall of Fame (most in the NFL) including Gale Sayers, Dick Butkus, and Walter Payton. Not bad at all.

Packers: The Super Bowl trophy is named after a Packers coach, There's about a 50 year waiting list for season tickets, 21 members in the Hall of Fame (second only to Chicago), 3 Super Bowl titles, and their fans wear cheese on their heads.

Jets: A New York team (So they'll never be as good as the media wants us to think, but we'll still hear about them non-stop) One Super Bowl title in 1968, Home of one of the craziest fans ever, Fireman Ed, A hilarious head coach, and last but not least, Bart Scott. He can't wait!

Steelers: A ridiculous 6 Super Bowl wins, One of the best football dynasties ever in the 70's, third most Hall Of Fame members, One of the league's best fan bases (tied with Green Bay as best in my book), and a quarterback looking to tie Tom Brady with 3 rings.


Packers (-3) @ Bears, Sunday 2:00 CT: The greatest rivalry in professional football right here. These teams have been playing since 1921, the longest in the NFL. 181 meetings but only once in the playoffs, in 1941 with the Bears winning 33-14. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been playing out of this world lately, throwing for 22 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions in his last 9 games. The Green Bay defense has played even better recently, only giving up 12 points per game the last 3 weeks. The Bears dominated the Seahawks with the help of a great performance by QB Jay Cutler, throwing for 2 TD's and rushing for 2 more. However, I couldn't tell how much playing the Seahawks had to do with the big game. Cutler is only 1-4 against the Packers all-time and I think Green Bay's blitzing defense will be too much on Sunday. The Packers were my pre-season Super Bowl pick (I had them beating Peyton Manning) and I'm not turning back now.  Packers 30, Bears, 20
  

Jets @ Steelers (-3.5) Sunday 5:30 CT: Bart Scott's tirade after the Jets' win over the Patriots is an all-time great, especially after that war of words the two franchises had over the course of the week. For some reason, The Jets shut up this week. I don't know why. I get that they respect the Steelers, Big Ben, and Mike Tomlin. But the Patriots are identical to the Steelers. Why stop now, Rex? Maybe he understands Roethlisberger does nothing but win in the post-season? Tom Brady is the same way, I'm still confused. Anyway, it's going to be mighty tough for the Jets to knock off THREE super bowl winning quarterbacks in a row, all on the road no less. They've already taken out Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. I think their run stops in the big ketchup bottle on Sunday night. Steelers 27, Jets 14.

NFL playoffs: Does seeding really matter?

In the last 10 years, at least one wild card team has made the Super Bowl 7 times.

2001, 2002, and 2009 are the only exceptions. And if the Packers or Jets win this weekend, we'll have another wild card team representing their conference, which begs the question: How much does seeding really matter?

Every team fights all year for that first round bye and home field advantage, but it often seems like it doesn't even matter. Take this season as an example. The Jets and Packers are 6-seeds, yet they've already won two road playoff games as underdogs. The Jets just beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road, and if they beat the Steelers this Sunday, they would have beaten three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in a row, all on the road no less.

The Packers had to win their last two regular season games just to get into the post-season, only to have a date on the road with the Falcons, the #1 seed. The Falcons had a week off while Green Bay was already in playoff mode for two weeks. We all saw what happened, the Packers put on a clinic on their way to a 48-21 win.


Obviously every team and it's fans want a bye to rest up and home field advantage, but as we see every year, it doesn't really matter.

NFL Divisional Round

 I was 2/4 with my picks last week, but I don't think anyone outside Seattle had the Seahawks beating the Saints, so I should really be 3/4.  Either way, I never claimed to be a handicapping expert. I'm looking at a few more upsets this weekend.


Ravens @ Steelers (-3) Saturday 3:30 CT: The people who say you can "throw out the numbers in a rivalry game" might actually be right this time. These teams are eerily similar in every facet of the game. Record, points a game, defense, conference record, etc. It goes on and on. The number I do like however, is Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's 6-0 record against the Ravens. Pittsburgh has the experience here, and I'll take that in the playoffs.  Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 16

Packers @ Falcons (-2.5) Saturday 7:00 CT: This is my first upset of the weekend. In the first matchup in week 12, a late Atlanta field goal gave the Falcons a 20-17 victory at home. However, the Packers defense has been playing lights out the last 3 weeks, only giving up an average of 12 points per game. While Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is 20-2 all time at home, he's never won a playoff game, so I'm taking the Packers and their defense in this one, 24-20.

Seahawks @ Bears (-10) Sunday 12:00 CT: Somehow the 7-9 Seahawks beat the Saints last week, and I'm not sure the argument of whether a 7-9 team should host a playoff game was finished or not. On one hand, they proved they were good enough to win a playoff game. On the other, would they have won that game without the home field advantage? It doesn't matter, because the Saints didn't want to be there, just look at the tackling in this highlight:

Seattle might be on a roll here, and I've never been sold on Chicago anyway. Seahawks 30, Bears 23, and a 7-9 team will host the NFC championship game.

Jets @ Patriots (-8.5) Sunday 3:30 CT: The Jets and their head coach Rex Ryan are the anti-Patriots. They trash talk better than anyone in the league and Ryan is the league's best soundbite. The Patriots don't say a word and their coach, Bill Belichick, is as lively as watching paint dry. But he wins. I guarantee this Patriots team had the quietest 14-2 season in the history of the NFL, and that's exactly the way they like it. Tom Brady should win the MVP, but that's not surprising. What's surprising is the Patriots went 14-2 with offensive leaders like Wes Welker and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Who? Exactly. They just win, and I like them to win comfortably on Sunday, 30-17.

Speaking of Playoffs

Let's see who advances this weekend.


Saints (-10.5) @ Seahawks: Saturday, 3:30 CT:  The wild-card round opens with one of the biggest playoff mismatches I can remember. Last season's Super Bowl champs (*side note: I hate when people say "defending super bowl champs", or "defending world series champs". They aren't defending it. Last season's trophy won't be taken away if they lose.) are headed to Seattle to face the mighty 7-9 Seahawks. Seattle is 10.5 point underdogs at home, which means Vegas agrees with me, this won't be a close one.  27-13 Saints.


Jets @ Colts (-2.5): Saturday 7:00 CT: Rex Ryan is 1-5 all-time against the Colts, whether as a head coach or defensive coordinator. The Jets were the sexy Super Bowl pick it seemed this summer, but don't look like a Super Bowl team to me right now. At the same time, The Colts needed a last second field goal last week to even make the playoffs. Jim Mora didn't think it could be done.

Well they made the playoffs, coach, and I like the Colts here. 17-14.

Ravens (-3) @ Chiefs: 12:00 CT Saturday: I had no idea the Chiefs would win 10 games this year. They had one of the easiest schedules in the league (only beating one playoff team, the Seahawks) but they did what they had to do, which is more than the Chargers can say. I'm not sold on Matt Cassel or Todd Haley though. If you ask me, (which you are, because you're reading this blog) The Chiefs are 10-6 because of GM Scott Pioli and his great draft last April, two great coordinators in Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, and Jamal Charles, one of the best running backs in the NFL. Unfortunately for all my Chiefs friends, the Ravens are 5th in rush defense, only giving up 93 yards per game on the ground. I don't trust Cassel's arm to win a playoff game, and I certainly don't trust Haley's play calling if Charles gets stopped early.  21-10 Ravens.

Packers @ Eagles (-3): 3:30 CT Sunday: The Packers were my pre-season Super Bowl pick, but the loss of starting running back Ryan Grant in the week 1 game against the Eagles really hurt their chances. The running game has been non-existent, as Aaron Rodgers leads the team with 4 rushing touchdowns. It's going to be tough to win another game in Philly, especially with the road woes the Pack have had most of the season. But I'm a homer sometimes. 24-20 Packers.