After days of speculation -and just a year after the last A&M secession talks- SEC presidents held a meeting Sunday morning and said they aren't extending an invite to the Aggies. Not today, anyway.
"The SEC Presidents and Chancellors met today and reaffirmed our satisfaction with the present 12 institutional alignment. We recognize, however, that future conditions may make it advantageous to expand the number of institutions in the league. We discussed criteria and process associated with expansion. No action was taken with respect to any institution including Texas A&M.”
I'm guessing the last thing the SEC wants is a potential billion dollar lawsuit from Texas and/or the Big 12 for snatching A&M while the Aggies are members of the Big 12. An offer can't be made until the school is officially out of their conference, unless I'm mistaken. The Texas A&M Board of Regents is meeting Monday to discuss realignment and to give A&M power to make realignment decisions. With the SEC denying reports of an invitation, they're saving themselves and giving A&M a chance to leave the Big 12 and formally apply. In other words, today's statement from the SEC means absolutely nothing. The Aggies will be members of the SEC sooner rather than later.
A few weeks ago I made 11 predictions for the college football season. Well, one one of those has already come true. My number 7 prediction was that Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy would have another meltdown, like his famous press conference attack on a reporter in 2007. 2:00 minute mark
Well, he graced us with his presence again.
ESPN reported that a carpenter hired by Gundy showed up to his house wearing an Oklahoma baseball shirt and the coach was not flattered when he arrived home a few hours later. The carpenter is now suing Gundy for $10,000 in damages.
"According to the lawsuit, Gundy arrived at the house at 9:30 a.m. and spotted Loveland's shirt. "How dare you come into my house and offend my wife," Gundy allegedly said. Gundy then allegedly used profanity as he told the contractor to get off his property. He called Loveland a "stupid idiot" for wearing the shirt on "OSU soil," and refused Loveland's apologies. The contractor offered to turn his shirt inside-out, but was refused, according to the lawsuit."
I figured he would blow up sometime this season. I didn't think it would take just 10 days.
Thanks coach.
The 4 month NFL lockout was never really in jeopardy. There was just too much money at stake for both sides to miss any games this fall. Last year's conference winners -Packers and Steelers- are strong once again and joined by the usual suspects. While the AFC is wide open and the NFC has 3-4 teams capable of making a run in the playoffs, I only see 5 teams with a legitimate shot at winning it all. I added the Super Bowl odds as well. Here's an explanation of odds for our non-chronic gambling friends.
5) Saints (+1000) At 10/1 odds, I would take the Saints if I was a betting man, which of course I'm not. Reggie Bush is gone, released after the lockout and now in Miami. But with the 1st round pick of Alabama running back Mark Ingram and the signing of Darren Sproles, the backfield in New Orleans is solid. (Along with backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory) With Drew Brees under center, the passing game will never be average. I expect to see the Saints facing Green Bay in a snowy January NFC title game in Lambeau.
4) Chargers (+1000) It seems like the Chargers are always a sexy pick, every single year. Nobody cares if they bomb in the playoffs every season. Is this year any different? Maybe not, but they've made some noise in free agency this off-season, picking up safety Bob Sanders as well as linebacker Takeo Spikes. With receiver Vincent Jackson back for a full season and Philip Rivers under center, the offense will be solid.
3) Steelers (+800) In the 4 seasons since Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have 2 AFC titles including a SB crown in 2008. The defense has been a top 5 unit every year Tomlin has been head coach, and it won't change this fall.
2) Patriots (+300) The experts think the Pats will be joining the Packers in Super Bowl XLVI, and it's hard to disagree. A lot of people like the Steelers, but New England has more talent. The Patriots also have Tom Brady and Chad Ochocinco, which doesn't hurt. If Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth can stay in line, the AFC title is theirs to lose. The signing of defensive end Shaun Ellis was huge, whether his former coach liked it or not.
1) Packers (+350) I know it's hard to repeat. But Green Bay is as good a candidate for that distinction we've had in a while. The Super Bowl champs were without their starting running back, Ryan Grant all season after injuring his leg in week 1. Not only that, but top-5 Tight End Jermichael Finley missed all but 5 games due to injuries last year as well. The offense was stellar without those guys. It can be better this year. The Packers probably have a 5 year window where 2 more titles isn't out of the question.
I didn't forget the Eagles or any of their acquisitions such as cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, or receiver Steve Smith. I just don't see Mike Vick guiding them through the NFC. Vick's playoff record is a less than special 2-3, and he's only been to the conference title game once, in 2004.
I had a few predictions heading into last football season. I thought South Carolina would win the SEC East. I said Auburn would beat the defending champs--Alabama--and win the SEC West, and that Alabama would lose at least 2 games. Surprising myself more than anyone, all of those came true. I figured I'll put them in stone this year, giving people a chance to laugh in my face in 5 months when I go 0-11 this time around.
11) The winner of the Big 10 will play for the National Championship. Ohio State and Penn State won't be bad by any means, but this looks to be Wisconsin and Nebraska's league to lose. Nebraska has really only one tough game all year, which happens to be against Wisconsin in Madison on Oct. 1. The Badgers have a tough game at Ohio State on Oct. 29, but they get Nebraska at home, which helps.
But I'm still leaning towards the Huskers.
10) South Carolina will win the SEC. This will be tough with both Alabama and LSU as title contenders this year, but if Steve Spurrier is ever going to lead South Carolina to a conference title, this is the year. Senior quarterback Stephen Garcia has plenty of experience and sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore is one of the best in the country. Along with the nation's No. 1 recruit --defensive end Jadeveon Clowney--- the defense won't be shabby.
9) Oregon will lose at least 2 games this fall. The Ducks were stifled against SEC foe Auburn in last year's BCS title game, and I don't see anything changing when they face LSU on Sept. 3 in Cowboys Stadium. They aren't physical enough to beat a big team from the SEC. They'll win the Pac 12, but only after dropping a head scratcher along the way. My guess is Stanford on Nov. 19.
8) 2011 won't be 2004. Seven years ago, USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn ended the year undefeated but the Tigers were left out, causing outrage in Auburn and I'm sure pissing off this guy.
If you want a playoff system, you need this to happen a few more times. Preferably with more teams. This year there's a handful of teams that could go undefeated. Alabama, LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Florida State come to mind. However, LSU and Alabama play each other in the SEC. One of them ain't going undefeated. Florida State and Oklahoma also play, effectively taking out two of those four teams immediately.
7) We see another one of these tirades from Mike Gundy:
It's time.
6) Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State Cowboys will lead the nation in scoring, but won't even finish 2nd in the Big 12. That's how good I think Texas A&M and Oklahoma will be this year. Last season, OSU finished 3rd in the nation in scoring and 2nd in yards per game. Quarterback Brandon Weeden and receiver Justin Blackmon return to Stillwater which will keep the offense running smoothly. The defense, however, was mediocre at best last season and probably won't improve enough in 2011.
5) Notre Dame will finally live up to expectations. Has there been a team that's lived up to preseason hype less than Notre Dame in the last 20 years? I don't think so. But with head coach Brian Kelly entering his second season in South Bend, this is the year that changes. A lot of coaches excel in their 2nd season on the job (OU's Bob Stoops, Florida's Urban Meyer, Ohio State's Jim Tressel all won the BCS title in their 2nd year at their respective schools). They return 9 starters on offense and 8 on defense, and I see them playing in a BCS bowl in January.
4) LSU's Les Miles won't survive past 2011, and the rest of the country will shake their heads. After winning the BCS title in 2007, Miles struggled the following 2 years losing 9 games, which probably felt like 20 in Baton Rouge. He rebounded last season, finishing 11-2 and winning the Cotton Bowl. However, with the violations the football program was just slapped with, Miles no longer has a buyout in his contract, meaning the school can fire him anytime and not pay him a dollar. Starting the season in the top 5 the Tigers have a chance to be really good. But any more than 2 losses and I think Miles is shown the door, and restless LSU fans (see below) will end up regretting the decision in 5 years.
"There's a Fine Line Between SEC Championship and Total Collapse. We Call Him Les."
3) Boise Statewill go undefeated again,and they still won't deserve a shot at the national title. The Broncos are 61-5 in the last 5 seasons, including undefeated years in 2006 and 2009. In 2006, they defeated Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, after posting impressive wins over teams like Louisiana Tech, Idaho, New Mexico State, and Wyoming. In 2009, they beat TCU in the Fiesta after another tough year with the likes of San Jose State, Miami of Ohio, and UC Davis on the schedule. They did beat Oregon to open the year, but that was followed by basically a 12-week buffet of borderline Division II competition. This year, they face Georgia in Atlanta. It will be a tough game and Boise will probably win it, but that won't make up for the following schedule to end the year:
Toledo
Tulsa
Nevada
Colorado State
Fresno State
Air Force
UNLV
TCU
San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico
I can think of at least 20 1-loss teams who would be more deserving of playing for the national title than an undefeated Boise State. If they want a shot, they can do what TCU just did. Improve the rest of their athletics/academics and join a major conference.
2) Florida State goes undefeated. The Sept. 17 game against top ranked Oklahoma will be tough, but it's a home game for the Seminoles. If they survive that, the rest of the schedule gives them a good shot at 13-0. After OU, the 2 roadblocks look like a Thursday night game at Boston College and the season finale traveling to Gainesville to take on Florida, who the Seminoles handled 31-7 last year. 8 starters return on both sides, and incoming quarterback EJ Manuel brings a lot of hype coming into 2011. And most likely, an undefeated season means one thing..
1) Florida State faces Nebraska in the BCS title game on January 9th. Head coach Bo Pelini has guided Nebraska to 3 bowl wins in 4 years in Lincoln. Quarterback Taylor Martinez was great on the ground in 2010, rushing for over 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns. Running back Rex Burkhead will probably get 80% of the carries early on, and finding a solid backup will be crucial for the run game. I predict Aaron Green will become that guy. The defense will be great once again, which shouldn't surprise anyone. If they can avoid another head scratching loss (9-6 loss to Texas A&M in 2010, 9-7 loss to Iowa State in 2009) and take care of Wisconsin on the road on Oct. 1, the Huskers should meet up with Florida State in New Orleans.
With exactly 2 months until the start of the college football season and not a truly meaningful sporting event until then, it's time to look ahead. Last year nearly every preseason discussion was "Is this the year a non-BCS school makes the title game?" Or something similar. It got old. Part of me was glad #4 Boise State was upset by Nevada at the end of the year. They won't be in that position this year, but they do have a non-conference game against Georgia that's worth watching. Here's 10 more.
11. Missouri @ Arizona State (Sept. 9): Mizzou doesn't leave the state much in the non-con, only twice in the last 4 years. Quarterback play is also a question mark for the Tigers with the departure of Blaine Gabbert to the NFL. Starter James Franklin only attempted 14 passes last year, and a Friday night start against a pretty good Arizona State team will be a good early challenge.
10. Ohio State @ Miami (Sept. 17): Rematch of the 2001 National Title game as well as a bout last season in Columbus in which Ohio State won 36-24. Any match up of historic programs is sure to get ratings and this is no different. It will also be interesting to see how Ohio State is handling things post-Jim Tressel/Terrell Pryor.
9. Oregon State @ Wisconsin (Sept. 10): Wisconsin has a chance to be really, really good this year. The transfer of former NC State quarterback Russell Wilson to Madison is huge. After landing Wilson last week, Wisconsin's odds to win the BCS title dropped from 30-1 to 15-1. Beating Oregon State will get them a little closer to that goal.
8. Notre Dame @ Michigan (Sept. 10): Notre Dame is probably overrated again, and with a new coach, Michigan will have plenty of question marks as well. But aside from the historical aspects of the match up, there's something else to watch. It will be the first night game in Michigan's history.
Turn on the lights
7. Boise State @ Georgia (Atlanta, Sept. 3): Boise State won't make the national game this year, but they do know how to knock off top BCS teams, as they did to #10 Virginia Tech last season. Georgia isn't as good as last year's Virginia Tech team, but they aren't bad. Probably just outside the top 25.
6. LSU @ West Virginia (Sept. 24): Any time a potential title contender travels to a hostile environment early in the year, it gets exciting. West Virginia has a new coach and won't be on any preseason polls while LSU should be in the top 5. The atmosphere in Morgantown will give this one some drama, though.
5. Alabama @ Penn State (Sept. 10): National title contender from the SEC West traveling to a rough environment to face a fringe top-25 team? Sounds familiar. However, this match up gets the nod in the head coaching and home field advantage departments.
4. Florida State @ Florida (Nov. 26): This has the potential to be #1 on the list, but things have to fall into place just right. Regardless, Florida State is looking to repeat last year's 31-7 rout. Florida's new head coach and former Texas D coordinator Will Muschamp knows pressure, but now he's the head guy in Gainesville.
3. Texas A&M @ Arkansas (Cowboys Stadium Oct. 1): The former Southwest Conference foes should be in the top 15 heading into the season, but both loss key players from last year's teams. Arkansas is replacing quarterback Ryan Mallett while A&M linebacker Von Miller was the second overall pick in this year's draft. Both teams also share the misfortune of having title contenders within their divisions (Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama). Both teams should still be ranked heading into this one, though.
2. Oregon @ LSU (Cowboys Stadium Sept. 3): Two top-5 teams selling out this monstrosity will be awesome.
Oregon fans bought 15,000 tickets, only to be outdone by the 37,000 snatched up by LSU. The remaining tickets were bought pretty quickly, and if I wasn't biased, this would be the #1 game to watch by far. But I am, so it's not.
1. Oklahoma @ Florida State (Sept. 17): Florida State got pounded by Oklahoma last year in Norman, 47-17. They went on to win 10 games and return 20/22 starters from last year. Aside from quarterback Christian Ponder, everyone else is back. They've also had a top 10 recruiting class each of the last 4 years. With the returning starters as well as the influx of top talent, The Seminoles are my pick to win the BCS title this year, IF they can get by top ranked OU in week 3.
There's still 2 days left of conference tournaments, but here's my bracket:
1 seeds:
Ohio State
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Team that could fall: Notre Dame
Ohio State and Kansas are locks. That's not changing one bit. Duke has a shot to steal a 1-seed from the other two, however. Especially with Pitt's 76-74 loss to Uconn today. Kemba Walker is nails, by the way. Big East Player of the Year, no question about it.
2's:
Duke
North Carolina
Purdue
Syracuse
Team that could jump up: Duke
Team that could fall: Syracuse
North Carolina's 12-1 ACC finish surprised everyone I think. Kendall Marshall's move to starting point guard played a big part in that run.
3's:
San Diego State
Uconn
BYU
Texas
Team that could jump up: San Diego State
4's:
Wisconsin
Florida
Louisville
Arizona
Teams that could fall: Arizona
5's:
Kentucky
St. Johns
West Virginia
Xavier
Team that could jump up: Kentucky
6's:
Texas A&M
Georgetown
UNLV
Vanderbilt
Team that could jump up: Texas A&M
Teams that could drop: UNLV, Vanderbilt
7's:
Old Dominion
Kansas State
Cincinnati
Temple
8's:
Missouri
George Mason
UCLA
Utah State
The top 4 seeds were fairly easy to choose from. After that it got a little tedious, but we'll see what happens on Sunday at 5.
Back in early January I predicted the Big 12 standings here.
What I knew all along:
-Kansas would capture its 7th straight Big 12 title, albeit a very tough road after trailing Texas by 2 games midway through the conference schedule.
-Rick Barnes would pull a Rick Barnes. The Longhorns started the Big 12 season 11-0 only to lay eggs against Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State. Way to go, Rick.
-Kansas State wasn't as good as everyone wanted to believe. However, they did rally big time after starting 2-5 in conference play to finish 4th. It's not the season they hoped for, but a Big 12 tournament 4-seed is better than the NIT.
-Texas Tech isn't very good at basketball. Shocking, considering their ridiculous home atmosphere down in Lubbock.
I had no clue:
-Colorado would finish 8-8, good enough for a 5-seed in the Big 12 tournament. Tad Boyle can coach, so the Pac-10 better watch out. Also, Buffs guard Alec Burks will be in the NBA sooner rather than later.
Here's how they finished:
1) Kansas: (14-2) Predicted finish: (1st)
2) Texas (13-3) (2nd)
3) Texas A&M: (10-6) (4th)
4) Kansas State (10-6) (5th)
5) Colorado: (8-8) (10th)
6) Missouri: (8-8) (3rd)
7) Baylor: (7-9) (6th)
8) Nebraska: (7-9) (8th)
9) Oklahoma State: (6-10) (9th)
10) Oklahoma: (5-11) (12th)
11) Texas Tech: (5-11) (11th)
12) Iowa State: (3-13) (7th)
So I was perfect on 5 teams, within 1 spot on 3 teams, and missed badly on Colorado, Iowa State, and Missouri. I would predict the Big 12 Tournament which starts in 9 hours, but frankly, I don't care about conference tournaments.
Here's how we look with 5 or 6 games left for everyone:
1) Texas (10-0, predicted finish last month: 2nd): The Longhorns have looked other-worldy for most of Big 12 play, beating Missouri and Kansas by double digits and sweeping Texas A&M. A No.1 seed looks to be in the cards with 6 games left and the Big 12 tournament remaining. Prediction: Final Four
2) Kansas (9-1, 1st): Kansas has won its last 5 games by a combined 92 points. The only road block remaining looks to be the March 5th matchup in Columbia with Mizzou. Prediciton: Final Four
This is where it gets interesting. Teams 3-8 are all within 2 games of one another.
3) Texas A&M (6-4, 4th): A&M was embarrassed twice by Texas by a combined 41 points. Losses to Nebraska and Colorado don't help either. Prediction: NCAA 2nd round.
4) Baylor (6-5, 6th):Lacedarius Dunn can score with the best of them, getting 21 points a game. If he decided to pass every once in a while the Bears could be a lot more dangerous. Freshman Perry Jones is a future NBA big man that no one has heard of because of Dunn's separation anxiety with Mr. Wilson. Prediciton: NCAA 2nd round.
5) Missouri (5-5, 3rd): Missouri's problems are pretty cut and dry. They don't win on the road. Call it coaching, lack of discipline, or a lack of calls they can't get away from Columbia. I don't know, but I hope they know the NCAA tournament isn't played at Mizzou arena. Prediction: NCAA 2nd round.
6) Colorado (5-6, 10th): I missed on this one. Alec Burks is better than I thought, and the Buffs look to be a year away from doing damage in the new Pac-12. They might not get that chance, though. Burks has said he's leaving early if projected as an NBA lottery pick. He's 18th here. Prediction: NIT.
7) Nebraska (4-6, 8th): They can't score, but the Huskers have the Big 12's best defense and the 10th best defense in the country. Head coach Doc Sadler might need an NCAA tourney appearance to save his job, however. He's failed to make the big dance, and with Nebraska's move to the Big 10 next year, I think AD Tom Osborne wants to start fresh in 2011-2012. Prediction: NIT.
8) Oklahoma State (4-6, 12th): The Cowboys aren't as bad as I thought, but they aren't that good either. Their best win was a 76-60 defeat of Missouri on Feb. 3rd. Sitting at 16 wins, they'll probably need 6 more to make the tournament. But with games with Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas, and Baylor remaining, that ain't happening. Prediciton: NIT.
10) Oklahoma (4-6, 9th): Jeff Capel isn't a great coach unless he has future NBA stars on his Roster. The only decent conference wins have come over Baylor and Colorado. I don't see things in Norman improving anytime soon. Prediciton: CBI
11) Texas Tech (3-7, 11th): Alright, I get it. Pat Knight's dad is an all-time great coach. Unfortunately, none of those skills got passed down to his son. Knight hasn't done anything since taking over for Bob in Lubbock. He's got to go after this season. Prediciton: Watching the tourney on CBS.
12) Iowa State: (1-9, 7th): "The mayor" Fred Hoiberg is struggling in his first season coaching in the Big 12. He's got one of the smallest rotations in the country, and he has about 15 guys who transferred to ISU and are sitting out this season because of NCAA rules. Next year will be better in Ames. Prediciton: CBI.
I'm not really sure how the Packers made it this far. They've put 15 guys on injured reserve this year including pro-bowl talents Nick Barnett, Ryan Grant, and Jermichael Finley.
Somehow the injuries were overcome and Green Bay made the playoffs after winning its last two regular season games. After a close win over the Eagles, they destroyed Atlanta on the road before taking out the Bears in the NFC title game. Aaron Rodgers has a 6/2 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs and looked all-worldly in his lone start in a dome, (throwing for 3 TD's and 366 yards) which is obviously the same surface he'll be on for Sunday's game.
The Steelers are playing for a lot of history. Head coach Mike Tomlin can become the youngest head coach to win two Super Bowls. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger can join the ultra-exclusive 3-rings quarterback club. Pittsburgh has played two really tough playoff games so far, a 31-24 win over Baltimore and a 24-19 victory over the Jets in the AFC title game.
Both teams are led by the league's best defensive minds in Dick Lebeau and Dom Capers, and both defenses have played great this post-season. This seems like an easy pick for a 17-14 defensive struggle, but I don't think so.
I picked the Packers over the Colts back in August, and there's no way I'm changing anything now.
1) Ohio St.: This could be Ohio St. or Kansas at #1, as both teams have had recent struggles with less than stellar competition. The Buckeyes escaped Iowa, Michigan, and Penn St. by less than 5 points in the last 2 weeks.
2) Kansas: After struggling to beat Michigan, Iowa St, and Nebraska, the Jayhawks put on a clinic against Baylor Monday night, 85-65. Texas travels to Lawrence on Saturday, and the winner will be in the driver's seat in the Big 12.
3) Pittsburgh: If I was picking a national champion right now, Pittsburgh would be my team. After opening Monday night's game against Syracuse on a 19-0 run, the Panthers held on for an eight point win and improved their record to 18-1.
4) Syracuse: The Orange almost recovered from that ridiculously bad start Monday, but spotting Pittsburgh 19 points was too much. This is still a really good team, though. They have another big game Saturday at home against Villanova.
5) Duke: I'm still not sold the Blue Devils can win a title without Kyrie Irving. I think the outstanding guard trio of Irving, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler can make up for the lack a of post presence, but without Irving it might be tough.
6) Connecticut: Another Big East team? Yes, the conference is that good right now. Kemba Walker is on the short list of national player of the year honors, and they just beat my #7 team, 61-59.
7) Villanova: Last Big East team, I promise. The two Coreys, Fisher and Stokes, are getting 16 and 15 ppg respectively. Fisher went off for 28 points in Monday's loss to Connecticut, but the Wildcats are still a game ahead of Uconn in the Big East standings.
8) Texas: If head coach Rich Barnes can somehow stay out of the way, Texas can make a deep run in March this year. They certainly have the talent to compete with Kansas for the Big 12 title with Jordan Hamilton averaging 19 points a game.
9) San Diego State: I'm not really sure about San Diego State yet. They're undefeated, but they haven't played a ton of good teams so far. The rest of their schedule only has three obstacles remaining: @BYU Jan. 26th, @UNLV Feb. 12th, and BYU at home on Feb. 26th. 3 wins there and we might have an undefeated team this season.
10) BYU: The only reason I like BYU here is Jimmer Fredette's ability to score at will most nights. The Cougars are 18-1 and are 6th in the nation in scoring, getting 84 points a game.
The final season of the Big 12 as we know it begins tomorrow, with 5 conference matchups on the slate. Texas and Kansas will begin Big 12 play next week, as both schools finish up their non-conference schedules this weekend.
The Big 12 isn't as good as I thought it would be in October, but there are still a handful of good teams who can potentially make some noise in March. Here's how I think everything plays out:
1) Kansas: The Jayhawks are 14-0 and #3 in the latest polls while leading the nation in field goal percentage. Freshman guard Josh Selby has looked as good, if not better, than advertised, and the Morris twins have stepped up as well. Marcus is averaging 15 points a game while Markieff is grabbing 8 rebounds per. Foul trouble has been a problem though, and will be the only reason if Kansas doesn't make the final four in Houston. Prediction: Elite 8.
2) Texas: I've never been sold on Rick Barnes as a great head coach, but he certainly has the talent in Austin this season. Jordan Hamilton has been playing like an All-American, averaging 19 points and 6 rebounds a game. Freshman big man Tristan Thompson has played great also, averaging 12 ppg and 8 rpg, so talent won't be an issue for the Longhorns. Prediction: Sweet 16.
3) Missouri: I think Missouri's guards will win them enough games in the Big 12 to net a 3rd place finish, but the overall lack of inside presence won't get them higher than that, and could easily slip farther in the standings. Rebounding will kill the Tigers, who are currently 76th in the nation. In 2009, Mizzou's best season in a long time, Leo Lyons (6'9") and DeMarre Carroll (6'8") could handle the ball, run the press, and wreaked havoc on defense. The 2011 Tigers don't have anyone like that, and it will hurt them. Prediction: Sweet 16.
4) Texas A&M: The Aggies are a 2-point loss to Boston College away from being undefeated, and also have two wins over ranked teams already this year (#20 Temple, #22 Washington). A&M isn't really great at anything, they just know how to win. However, their inability to put away bad teams (beating Stephen F. Austin, McNeese St, and Nichols St by less than 12) doesn't bode well for conference play. Prediction: 2nd round.
5) Kansas State: The loss of senior guard Denis Clemente hurt more than any Wildcat fan wanted to admit. Clemente was the fastest Big 12 guard I saw in person last year, and he was the perfect compliment to pre-season AA Jacob Pullen, who is still scoring but is only getting 3 assists per game. The team can't shoot, sitting at only 44% from the field, but are 5th in the nation in rebounding. Prediction: Sweet 16.
6) Baylor: The Bears were my pick for second place before the season started, but they've lost to every decent team they've played. Losses to Gonzaga, Washington St, and Florida St. have dropped them from the top 25 and have questioned their ability to truly make up for the loss of center Ekpe Udoh, who left early for the NBA. Prediction: 2nd round.
7) Iowa St: The Cyclones are 13-2 with wins over in-state rival Iowa as well as Virginia back in December. They've taken care of the cupcakes, with their only losses coming back-to-back against Norhern Iowa and Cal. First year coach Fred Hoiberg has looked good so far, and a NCAA tournament appearance is possible. Prediction: 1st round.
8) Nebraska: The Big 12 hasn't been kind to the Cornhuskers, who are still looking for their first ever win in the NCAA tournament. Head coach Doc Sadler might need an NCAA tournament appearance to save his job, but the loss of forward Christian Standhardinger really hurts the team going forward. Standhardinger was averaging 9 ppg before leaving the team in December. Prediction: NIT.
9) Oklahoma St.: Sitting at 12-2 is nice, but who have the Cowboys beat? Stanford and Alabama, and that's about it. Head coach Travis Ford is a year or two away from making a splash in the new Big 12. Prediction: NIT
10) Colorado: Sophomore Alec Burks is the best player nobody has heard about, averaging 19 points a game with a potential future in the NBA. That's about it for the Buffs, though, who can score with the best of them (84 points a game) but are allergic to defense. Prediction: NIT.
11) Texas Tech: The Red Raiders aren't very good. At all. They've already lost to North Texas, TCU, and UTEP. If head coach Pat Knight's last name wasn't Knight, he'd be coaching some NAIA school already. Nevertheless, he should be gone after this season. Prediction: Do they still have that CBI tournament? Who knows, maybe the Red Raiders can make that. Otherwise, they'll be sitting at home in March.
12) Oklahoma: Blake Griffin isn't walking through that door. The Sooners already have a nice five-game losing streak, including a four-point loss to Division II Chaminade in November. Next year's recruiting class doesn't look promising either, so I'm not sure when things will improve in Norman. Prediction: No post-season.
Saints (-10.5) @ Seahawks: Saturday, 3:30 CT: The wild-card round opens with one of the biggest playoff mismatches I can remember. Last season's Super Bowl champs (*side note: I hate when people say "defending super bowl champs", or "defending world series champs". They aren't defending it. Last season's trophy won't be taken away if they lose.) are headed to Seattle to face the mighty 7-9 Seahawks. Seattle is 10.5 point underdogs at home, which means Vegas agrees with me, this won't be a close one. 27-13 Saints.
Jets @ Colts (-2.5): Saturday 7:00 CT: Rex Ryan is 1-5 all-time against the Colts, whether as a head coach or defensive coordinator. The Jets were the sexy Super Bowl pick it seemed this summer, but don't look like a Super Bowl team to me right now. At the same time, The Colts needed a last second field goal last week to even make the playoffs. Jim Mora didn't think it could be done.
Well they made the playoffs, coach, and I like the Colts here. 17-14.
Ravens (-3) @ Chiefs: 12:00 CT Saturday: I had no idea the Chiefs would win 10 games this year. They had one of the easiest schedules in the league (only beating one playoff team, the Seahawks) but they did what they had to do, which is more than the Chargers can say. I'm not sold on Matt Cassel or Todd Haley though. If you ask me, (which you are, because you're reading this blog) The Chiefs are 10-6 because of GM Scott Pioli and his great draft last April, two great coordinators in Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, and Jamal Charles, one of the best running backs in the NFL. Unfortunately for all my Chiefs friends, the Ravens are 5th in rush defense, only giving up 93 yards per game on the ground. I don't trust Cassel's arm to win a playoff game, and I certainly don't trust Haley's play calling if Charles gets stopped early. 21-10 Ravens.
Packers @ Eagles (-3): 3:30 CT Sunday: The Packers were my pre-season Super Bowl pick, but the loss of starting running back Ryan Grant in the week 1 game against the Eagles really hurt their chances. The running game has been non-existent, as Aaron Rodgers leads the team with 4 rushing touchdowns. It's going to be tough to win another game in Philly, especially with the road woes the Pack have had most of the season. But I'm a homer sometimes. 24-20 Packers.
