Tanking for Luck Worth It?

I heard it a lot last weekend. Fans of downtrodden teams, fans of teams that came out terrible in week 1, or fans that just don't like their starting quarterback. The Titans, Chiefs, Colts (Yes, the Colts), and Seahawks come immediately to mind. If you're going to be awful - I heard- you might as well be the worst and have a shot at drafting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who will be almost certainly be the No. 1 pick in next April's NFL draft. The Heisman runner up, Orange Bowl MVP, All-American, etc. looks great, no doubt. But how good will he be in the NFL? Now I don't think any NFL team would deliberately lose a game -let alone multiple games- just to grab a better draft pick, but the fans' reactions were interesting. Would it really be worth it?

                                                                 I don't know

Here's the quarterbacks who were overall No. 1 picks since 1980:

2010: Sam Bradford--3,500 yards as a rookie, could eventually be a great QB. Too early to tell.

2009: Matt Stafford--22 TD's/22 INT's through 14 career starts. Also too early.

2007: Jamarcus Russell--Biggest bust of all time.

2005: Alex Smith--Mediocre at best. (Guys taken after Smith: Aaron Rodgers, Demarcus Ware)

2004: Eli Manning--Pro Bowler but will never be a top 5 QB in the league.

2003: Carson Palmer--A few really good to great years but he's not even playing right now. Contract issues in Cincinnati. (Andre Johnson, Troy Polamalu, Nnamdi Asomugha)

2002: David Carr--BUST (Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Ed Reed, Clinton Portis)

2001: Mike Vick-- Really good quarterback, only 2-3 playoff record though. Only 1 conference title game, which he lost. (Drew Brees)

1999: Tim Couch--BUST (Donovan McNabb, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey)

1998: Peyton Manning

1993: Drew Bledsoe-- 4 pro bowls, but just a 3-3 career playoff record (Jerome Bettis, Michael Strahan)

1990: Geoff George--BUST (Junior Seau)

1989: Troy Aikman

1987: Vinny Testaverde: Solid quarterback, but not close to the best player in that draft. (Rod Woodson, Cris Carter)

1983: John Elway


That's 3 QB's taken No. 1 overall who ended up being truly great, hall of fame quarterbacks. And only 4 of those guys won Super Bowls. -In the last 30 years, only 4 quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall have won a Superbowl- Now, you don't have to be a hall of famer to justify being chosen No. 1, but is possibly drafting a Jamarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Tim Couch, or Geoff George worth the risk of trying to draft the next John Elway?


Here's the last 15 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers-- 1st round, 24th pick
Drew Brees-- 2nd round, 32nd pick
Eli Manning--1st pick overall
Peyton Manning--1st pick overall
Ben Roethlisberger--1st round, 11th pick
Tom Brady--6th round, 199th pick
Brad Johnson--9th round, 227th pick
Trent Dilfer--1st round, 6th pick
Kurt Warner--Undrafted
John Elway--1st pick overall
Brett Favre--2nd round, 33rd pick
Troy Aikman--1st pick overall
Steve Young--Supplement draft
Mark Rypien--6th round, 146th pick
Jeff Hostetler--3rd round, 59th pick


Of the 2 quarterbacks who have won 3 rings in that time, one was the 1st overall pick (Aikman) and one was a 6th round pick (Brady.) So maybe Andrew Luck will be the next Elway. But there's a better chance he's average like Drew Bledsoe or just plain bad like Tim Couch. And there's an even BETTER chance he won't be the best player in the draft.  Be careful what you wish for.

Week 2 Games To Watch

Last week one of my picks was an instant classic. There's not any eye-popping match ups this week, however.

#3 Alabama @ #23 Penn State (Saturday 2:30 P.M ABC): Both teams have yet to settle on a starting quarterbacks, so if you like QB play be sure to watch this one. You'll see 4 throughout the game. Two ranked BCS foes going head-to-head in the non-conference slate is sometimes hard to find, so this game in Happy Valley should be a good one.

#21 Mizzou @ Arizona State (Friday 8:30 P.M. ESPN): Arizona State isn't ranked in this week's AP poll, but they are #23 in the coach's. Vegas isn't effected by the AP's ranking though, as the Sun Devils are 8 point favorites. Mizzou will probably go as far as freshman QB James Franklin will take them, and a hot Friday night contest in the desert will be tough.

Notre Dame @ Michigan (Saturday 7:00 P.M. ESPN): Notre Dame didn't help me out any last week, losing to South Florida at home 23-20. Michigan looked better against Western Michigan, but it was still Western Michigan. There's really not much to say about this game other than it being the first ever night game in the 84 year-old 'Big House' in Ann Arbor. That's enough of a reason to watch.

#12 South Carolina at Georgia (Saturday 2:30 P.M ESPN): Is Boise as good as they looked last week, or is Georgia just mediocre? Can South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia avoid controversy and stay on the field? We should know both after this conference opening game for both teams Saturday. If Garcia plays all year I still think South Carolina can win the SEC.

College Games to Watch Next Weekend

If you follow college football, click on this link and save that page. Every game this year, with kickoff times and tv schedules set. Here are some games to watch in week 1. Yes, it's still a bit early and I was going to wait and do this every Wednesday starting next week, but I haven't seen a meaningful sporting event in over 2 months and I'm bored. So I'll start a week early.

Not unlike most opening weekends, you've got a bunch of cupcake platters with a few great games mixed in.

TCU @ Baylor (Fri. 7:00 P.M. ESPN): Baylor Quarterback Robert Griffin is one of the Big 12's top QB's and he has his top 5 receivers back this year. TCU is coming off a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin,

but only return 10 starters on both sides of the ball. Should be a close game in Waco.

South Florida @ Notre Dame (Sat. 2:30 P.M NBC): Is this the year Notre Dame finally lives up to expectations? I think so. 3 reasons why: 1) Brian Kelly wins. A lot. He went 34-6 in 4 seasons at Cincinnati. 2) A lot of coaches seem to make giant leaps in their 2nd year on the job. Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, and Jim Tressel all won BCS titles in year two. And 3) The Irish return 19 starters.

UNLV @ Wisconsin (Thurs. 7:00 P.M. ESPN): It's the first game of the year on ESPN, which is nice. Wisconsin returns a solid running game and is neck and neck with Nebraska as Big 10 favorites this year. QB transfer Russell Wilson could push the Badgers over the top this season.

Boise St. @ Georgia (Atlanta, 7:00 P.M ESPN): Boise State is good for one good upset a year. This would be it, except the Broncos are actually favored over SEC foe Georgia. Boise will probably win, but they still won't deserve a national title shot.

Oregon @ LSU (Dallas, 7:00 P.M ESPN):

It sucks these last two games are at the same time, because it's clearly the two best match ups of the weekend. This one's basically a toss up right now. I'll take the SEC over Oregon's speed any day, though.

A&M to SEC Still Very Possible

After days of speculation -and just a year after the last A&M secession talks- SEC presidents held a meeting Sunday morning and said they aren't extending an invite to the Aggies. Not today, anyway.

"The SEC Presidents and Chancellors met today and reaffirmed our satisfaction with the present 12 institutional alignment. We recognize, however, that future conditions may make it advantageous to expand the number of institutions in the league. We discussed criteria and process associated with expansion. No action was taken with respect to any institution including Texas A&M.”

I'm guessing the last thing the SEC wants is a potential billion dollar lawsuit from Texas and/or the Big 12 for snatching A&M while the Aggies are members of the Big 12. An offer can't be made until the school is officially out of their conference, unless I'm mistaken. The Texas A&M Board of Regents is meeting Monday to discuss realignment and to give A&M power to make realignment decisions. With the SEC denying reports of an invitation, they're saving themselves and giving A&M a chance to leave the Big 12 and formally apply. In other words, today's statement from the SEC means absolutely nothing. The Aggies will be members of the SEC sooner rather than later.

1 Down, 10 To Go

A few weeks ago I made 11 predictions for the college football season. Well, one one of those has already come true. My number 7 prediction was that Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy would have another meltdown, like his famous press conference attack on a reporter in 2007.

                                                              2:00 minute mark

Well, he graced us with his presence again.

ESPN reported that a carpenter hired by Gundy showed up to his house wearing an Oklahoma baseball shirt and the coach was not flattered when he arrived home a few hours later. The carpenter is now suing Gundy for $10,000 in damages.

"According to the lawsuit, Gundy arrived at the house at 9:30 a.m. and spotted Loveland's shirt. "How dare you come into my house and offend my wife," Gundy allegedly said.
Gundy then allegedly used profanity as he told the contractor to get off his property. He called Loveland a "stupid idiot" for wearing the shirt on "OSU soil," and refused Loveland's apologies. The contractor offered to turn his shirt inside-out, but was refused, according to the lawsuit."


I figured he would blow up sometime this season. I didn't think it would take just 10 days.

Thanks coach.

5 NFL Contenders

The 4 month NFL lockout was never really in jeopardy. There was just too much money at stake for both sides to miss any games this fall. Last year's conference winners -Packers and Steelers- are strong once again and joined by the usual suspects. While the AFC is wide open and the NFC has 3-4 teams capable of making a run in the playoffs, I only see 5 teams with a legitimate shot at winning it all. I added the Super Bowl odds as well. Here's an explanation of odds for our non-chronic gambling friends.


5) Saints (+1000) At 10/1 odds, I would take the Saints if I was a betting man, which of course I'm not. Reggie Bush is gone, released after the lockout and now in Miami. But with the 1st round pick of Alabama running back Mark Ingram and the signing of Darren Sproles, the backfield in New Orleans is solid. (Along with backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory) With Drew Brees under center, the passing game will never be average. I expect to see the Saints facing Green Bay in a snowy January NFC title game in Lambeau.

4) Chargers (+1000) It seems like the Chargers are always a sexy pick, every single year. Nobody cares if they bomb in the playoffs every season. Is this year any different? Maybe not, but they've made some noise in free agency this off-season, picking up safety Bob Sanders as well as linebacker Takeo Spikes. With receiver Vincent Jackson back for a full season and Philip Rivers under center, the offense will be solid.

3) Steelers (+800) In the 4 seasons since Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have 2 AFC titles including a SB crown in 2008. The defense has been a top 5 unit every year Tomlin has been head coach, and it won't change this fall.

2) Patriots (+300) The experts think the Pats will be joining the Packers in Super Bowl XLVI, and it's hard to disagree. A lot of people like the Steelers, but New England has more talent. The Patriots also have Tom Brady and Chad Ochocinco, which doesn't hurt. If Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth can stay in line, the AFC title is theirs to lose. The signing of defensive end Shaun Ellis was huge, whether his former coach liked it or not.

1) Packers (+350) I know it's hard to repeat. But Green Bay is as good a candidate for that distinction we've had in a while. The Super Bowl champs were without their starting running back, Ryan Grant  all season after injuring his leg in week 1. Not only that, but top-5 Tight End Jermichael Finley missed all but 5 games due to injuries last year as well. The offense was stellar without those guys. It can be better this year. The Packers probably have a 5 year window where 2 more titles isn't out of the question.


I didn't forget the Eagles or any of their acquisitions such as cornerbacks  Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, or receiver Steve Smith. I just don't see Mike Vick guiding them through the NFC. Vick's playoff record is a less than special 2-3, and he's only been to the conference title game once, in 2004.

College Football Plus 1 System Would Work

Nobody loves the BCS. At least, I don't think anyone does. It's a step up from the previous system, much like an 87 Geo Metro is a step up from horse and buggy. You can do better.

If you follow college football and don't pay attention to Phil Steele, you should. His preseason magazine is gold. He wrote an article about the BCS mess and has advocated for a Plus-1 system to determine a champion for years. It makes sense. Too much, probably. So we'll never see it.


You keep the BCS rankings, but instead of placing the top 2 teams in the national title game, you take the top 4. At the end of the regular season and conference title games, you put 1 vs. 4 in a BCS bowl and 2 vs. 3 in another.

So last season, Auburn would have played Stanford in say, the Sugar Bowl. Oregon would have played TCU in the Rose Bowl. The semi-final locations would rotate between the 4 BCS Bowls: Sugar, Rose, Orange, Fiesta.

Take 2-3 weeks off for rest and mainly to get things worked out like ticket sales and travel arrangements for fans. The winners would play the bye week before the Super Bowl at whichever BCS bowl's turn it was. Last year would have been the Fiesta Bowl.

It takes virtually nothing away from the regular season because 1 loss could potentially knock you out of the final top 4. For the team that finished 5th, they had a chance to control their own destiny. And more to that point, Steele went back and looked at every 5th ranked team since the BCS started and none of them were in the same class as the top 4. The only years the system wouldn't have worked perfectly (4 out of 14 I believe) the top 2 teams were clearly the 2 best teams and deserved to play automatically. Even then, they would have probably won the semi-final games and played for the title anyway.

Teams 5-8 could still play in BCS bowls as well, just like the current system. Last year it would have looked something like this:

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Uconn
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio State

Rose Bowl: Auburn vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. TCU

The winners of the Rose and Orange Bowls would have played 2-3 weeks later at a neutral site. We'd have none of this "TCU deserves a shot because they went undefeated too" nonsense. They would have a shot if they won their semifinal game.

An 8 game playoff could also work, but the Plus-1 system keeps the regular season as important as it's always been and it's the easiest system to transition to from the current format.

11 College Football Predictions for '11.

I had a few predictions heading into last football season. I thought South Carolina would win the SEC East. I said Auburn would beat the defending champs--Alabama--and win the SEC West, and that Alabama would lose at least 2 games. Surprising myself more than anyone, all of those came true. I figured I'll put them in stone this year, giving people a chance to laugh in my face in 5 months when I go 0-11 this time around.

11) The winner of the Big 10 will play for the National Championship. Ohio State and Penn State won't be bad by any means, but this looks to be Wisconsin and Nebraska's league to lose. Nebraska has really only one tough game all year, which happens to be against Wisconsin in Madison on Oct. 1. The Badgers have a tough game at Ohio State on Oct. 29, but they get Nebraska at home, which helps.

But I'm still leaning towards the Huskers.

10) South Carolina will win the SEC.  This will be tough with both Alabama and LSU as title contenders this year, but if Steve Spurrier is ever going to lead South Carolina to a conference title, this is the year. Senior quarterback Stephen Garcia has plenty of experience and sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore is one of the best in the country. Along with the nation's No. 1 recruit --defensive end Jadeveon Clowney--- the defense won't be shabby.

9) Oregon will lose at least 2 games this fall. The Ducks were stifled against SEC foe Auburn in last year's BCS title game, and I don't see anything changing when they face LSU on Sept. 3 in Cowboys Stadium. They aren't physical enough to beat a big team from the SEC. They'll win the Pac 12, but only after dropping a head scratcher along the way. My guess is Stanford on Nov. 19.

8) 2011 won't be 2004. Seven years ago, USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn ended the year undefeated but the Tigers were left out, causing outrage in Auburn and I'm sure pissing off this guy.

If you want a playoff system, you need this to happen a few more times. Preferably with more teams. This year there's a handful of teams that could go undefeated. Alabama, LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Florida State come to mind. However, LSU and Alabama play each other in the SEC. One of them ain't going undefeated. Florida State and Oklahoma also play, effectively taking out two of those four teams immediately.

7) We see another one of these tirades from Mike Gundy:

It's time.

6) Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State Cowboys will lead the nation in scoring, but won't even finish 2nd in the Big 12. That's how good I think Texas A&M and Oklahoma will be this year. Last season, OSU finished 3rd in the nation in scoring and 2nd in yards per game. Quarterback Brandon Weeden and receiver Justin Blackmon return to Stillwater which will keep the offense running smoothly. The defense, however, was mediocre at best last season and probably won't improve enough in 2011.

5) Notre Dame will finally live up to expectations. Has there been a team that's lived up to preseason hype less than Notre Dame in the last 20 years? I don't think so. But with head coach Brian Kelly entering his second season in South Bend, this is the year that changes. A lot of coaches excel in their 2nd season on the job (OU's Bob Stoops, Florida's Urban Meyer, Ohio State's Jim Tressel all won the BCS title in their 2nd year at their respective schools). They return 9 starters on offense and 8 on defense, and I see them playing in a BCS bowl in January.

4) LSU's Les Miles won't survive past 2011, and the rest of the country will shake their heads. After winning the BCS title in 2007, Miles struggled the following 2 years losing 9 games, which probably felt like 20 in Baton Rouge. He rebounded last season, finishing 11-2 and winning the Cotton Bowl. However, with the violations the football program was just slapped with, Miles no longer has a buyout in his contract, meaning the school can fire him anytime and not pay him a dollar. Starting the season in the top 5 the Tigers have a chance to be really good. But any more than 2 losses and I think Miles is shown the door, and restless LSU fans (see below) will end up regretting the decision in 5 years.  

                      "There's a Fine Line Between SEC Championship and Total Collapse. We Call Him Les."

3) Boise State will go undefeated again, and they still won't deserve a shot at the national title. The Broncos are 61-5 in the last 5 seasons, including undefeated years in 2006 and 2009. In 2006, they defeated Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, after posting impressive wins over teams like Louisiana Tech, Idaho, New Mexico State, and Wyoming. In 2009, they beat TCU in the Fiesta after another tough year with the likes of San Jose State, Miami of Ohio, and UC Davis on the schedule. They did beat Oregon to open the year, but that was followed by basically a 12-week buffet of borderline Division II competition. This year, they face Georgia in Atlanta. It will be a tough game and Boise will probably win it, but that won't make up for the following schedule to end the year:

Toledo
Tulsa
Nevada
Colorado State
Fresno State
Air Force
UNLV
TCU
San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico

I can think of at least 20 1-loss teams who would be more deserving of playing for the national title than an undefeated Boise State. If they want a shot, they can do what TCU just did. Improve the rest of their athletics/academics and join a major conference.

2) Florida State goes undefeated. The Sept. 17 game against top ranked Oklahoma will be tough, but it's a home game for the Seminoles. If they survive that, the rest of the schedule gives them a good shot at 13-0. After OU, the 2 roadblocks look like a Thursday night game at Boston College and the season finale traveling to Gainesville to take on Florida, who the Seminoles handled 31-7 last year. 8 starters return on both sides, and incoming quarterback EJ Manuel brings a lot of hype coming into 2011. And most likely, an undefeated season means one thing..

1) Florida State faces Nebraska in the BCS title game on January 9th. Head coach Bo Pelini has guided Nebraska to 3 bowl wins in 4 years in Lincoln. Quarterback Taylor Martinez was great on the ground in 2010, rushing for over 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns. Running back Rex Burkhead will probably get 80% of the carries early on, and finding a solid backup will be crucial for the run game. I predict Aaron Green will become that guy. The defense will be great once again, which shouldn't surprise anyone. If they can avoid another head scratching loss (9-6 loss to Texas A&M in 2010, 9-7 loss to Iowa State in 2009) and take care of Wisconsin on the road on Oct. 1, the Huskers should meet up with Florida State in New Orleans.

First Shot Across the Bow

Not content with a 1st place tie at the All-Star break, the Brewers traded for star closer Francisco Rodriguez on Tuesday. The former Met and Angel closer isn't what he used to be, but he's still a top flight reliever, going 23 for 26 in save chances this year.

He also has a very interesting contract, in which his team must pick up his $17.5 million option for next year if he finishes 55 games. He's already at 34 so the Brewers will handle him with care. Probably keeping current closer John Axford in the 9th inning and using K-Rod in the 8th, which if he cooperates, could be a dangerous late-inning duo.

Regardless of the combination Rodriguez and Axford are used in the second half of the season, the Brewers just became serious contenders in the National League central. Technically a four-team race with the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds, no one expects Pittsburgh to stay on this pace, making it essentially a three-way battle to October.

The Reds will probably make at least one move, but I couldn't guess what that will be. The Cardinals' position is pretty clear.

They need pitching, they have 4 really good outfielders. Simple enough. Well, they also need a shortstop, but that won't happen until the off-season I'm guessing. Even with the Rodriguez trade, the Cardinals could still win the division with this roster, even though it will be tougher now. However, barring another 2006-esque run, they won't get by Philly as things stand.

Colby Rasmus is the obvious choice here, as Matt Holliday is untouchable, Lance Berkman is having too good of a year and rookie Jon Jay is the center fielder of the future.

There's a bunch of different ways to go about this. They could pick up a starter and move Kyle McClellan to the bullpen. Or they could trade for a lefty reliever. They could also grab a closer and push current closer Fernando Salas to the 8th inning. Any move would help, and there is really no way the team will keep Holliday, Rasmus, Jay, and Berkman next year.

So whatever the front office does in July will be telling. If they're going all out for 2011, they'll unload an out fielder and help the pitching staff. If they don't, it means they don't plan on re-signing Berkman (contract expires this year) and they're hoping for the best, which probably won't end well.

25 Years of Fail

Some fans hope for repeats, some want another championship before they die, and some want to know what making the playoffs even looks like. Here's the 11 cities who have experienced the most failure the last 25 years.*
 *Cities with at least 2 major sports teams


11) Atlanta: The Braves had a ridiculous streak of 14 consecutive division titles from 1991-2005, including 5 National League pennants. Yet they only captured one championship.

                                                             1 for 14 will do this to you

The Falcons have been bad far more often than good. They won the NFC in 1998, only to meet up with the buzz saw that was John Elway.  The Hawks haven't done a thing since the Nixon administration, and the NHL's Thrashers are leaving town as you read this.

10) Washington D.C: The Redskins are one of the more storied franchises in the NFL, which helps. They've also captured a couple of Super Bowls in the last 25 years, which also helps. But there hasn't been much success since about '91, and their fans dress like this:

The other franchises in the nation's capital haven't picked up the slack. The Bullets became the Wizards but didn't get any better. The Capitals missed their only shot at a Stanley Cup in 1998.

9) Phoenix: The 2001 Diamondbacks became the youngest franchise to win a World Series, just their fourth year in the league. Besides that, Phoenix sports have been nothing more than something to do to get out of the sun. The Coyotes have proven hockey doesn't belong in the desert. The Suns' biggest claim to fame is being a part of Jordan's first 3-peat, and the Cardinals needed a 53 year-old Kurt Warner to become relevant. For just a year.

8) Cincinnati: It's hard to find a better joke of a franchise than the Cincinnati Bengals. They had a solid 14 year playoff drought from 1991-2004. They've had just two playoff appearances since then, and their drafts have been comic gold. They once took Akili Smith over Torry Holt. Peter Warrick over Brian Urlacher. Justin Smith over Ladanian Tomlinson. Levi Jones over Dwight Freeney and on and on and on.

7) Oakland: The city of Oakland hasn't seen a championship since Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire anchored the lineup and neither was suspected of using steroids.

Al Davis still owns the Raiders, so that train wreck isn't going anywhere for a while. And the Warriors might be the NBA's worst run franchise, which is tough to do in a league with the Clippers and Knicks.

6) Buffalo: When you go to the Super Bowl 4 years in a row, the law of averages says you'll win at least 1, right? The Bills lost on a wide-right field goal in 1990, got blown out in 91, got blown worse in 92, and blew a halftime lead in 93 to make it an even four-peat. Buffalo is one invention of the buffalo wing away from being the worst city in America.

5) Cleveland: If this was the biggest failures of the last 50 years, Cleveland probably tops the list. But  they've had decent teams in the last 25 seasons. The Cavs had Lebron, which was fun while it lasted. The Browns left, came back, and have been to the playoffs a hand full of times. They also have some of the league's most passionate fans, even with all the losing.

The Indians won a pair of American League titles in the mid-90's, but couldn't win either trip.

4) San Diego: Not normally known for sports mediocrity, San Diego is quickly gaining a reputation. The Padres' biggest achievement of the last 25 years was getting swept by the Yankees in the 1998 Wold Series. They haven't won a single playoff game since, and they hadn't won a playoff game before 98. The Chargers also have an embarrassing title appearance story to tell, getting utterly destroyed by the 49er's, 49-26 in Super Bowl XXIX. Along with the laundry list of playoff failures, the team is also a candidate to move to LA.

3) Seattle: The Sonics played for an NBA title but left 3 years ago. The Seahawks have been somewhat respectable, winning 7 division titles and 1 NFC championship, and the Mariners are somewhere in the middle. Only 4 playoff appearances, but hey, at least they're still in town.

2) Milwaukee: These final two cities are in a class all their own. I'll start with Milwaukee because they won the coin flip. The Brewers once made the playoffs, and they almost won two games. Almost. They've had a few good years, winning 85+ games four times, and as of today they're tied for first in the National League Central. The Bucks have been pretty awful, not sniffing a championship since the mid-70's.

1) Kansas City: The Chiefs have 3 playoff wins in the last 25 years, getting past the divisional round only once. What success the Chiefs have had the last quarter century is undoubtedly overshadowed by the Royals, who haven't made postseason play since their World Series title in 1985. They've won more than 85 games only once, and they haven't finished better than 3rd in their division since 1995. With four 1990's or later expansion teams (Rockies, Marlins, Dbacks, Rays) making or winning the World Series recently, the annual losing in Kansas City is even more astounding.

Hall of Very Good

Bert Blyleven wasn't a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. The former starting pitcher retired in 1992 after 22 seasons and was first eligible for enshrinement in Cooperstown in 1998. Needing 75 percent of the votes, he received just 17. The next year, he had just 14 percent. After 14 years on the ballot, Blyleven was finally elected last winter and will be enshrined this summer. I'm not sure what he did between 1998 and last December, but it sure did work.

He had 287 wins in 1998, and he still had 287 last winter.
He didn't strike anyone else out.
Maybe his era went down? No, it's still 3.31.

 Now, I understand the significance of being a 'first ballot hall of famer.' It means you're the best of the best. Or maybe the best of the best of the best. There's hall of famers, and there's first ballot hall of famers. Nolan Ryan and Lou Brock are first ballot guys. Robert Doerr and George Davis are not.

So I understand not wanting to put certain guys in on their first chance. It's a way of recognizing the elite for being just that.

But if a guy doesn't warrant enough votes after four, five, and even 10 plus years, does he really deserve a plaque?


This reminds me of a recent column from Sports Illustrated's Joe Posnanski, who talked about the problems with the All-Star game voting and how he doesn't even know who to blame anymore.


I feel the same way with the Hall of Fame. It's not Burt Blyleven's fault. He's just been waiting. Hoping that someday the writers would think his stats were good enough. Because they certainly weren't in 1999. Much like voting a guy in on his first chance sends a message, waiting 14 years does the same thing. Every year, the HOF voters told Blyleven, "Hey, you were good, but not that good. Maybe next year."

The current rule states that as long as a player receives 5 percent of the vote every year, he can stay on the ballot for up to 15 years. As long as the rule is in place, the writers will continue to show us how smart they are.

Again, If a guy wasn't good enough after 5 years on the ballot, he probably isn't a hall of famer. And Blyleven probably has a hall of fame resume. But with the safety net of knowing they had some 15 years to put him in, writers sent the message every winter. If players only had 5 chances to gather enough votes, I'm pretty confident Blyleven would have made it a decade ago.

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Very Good. If guys like Blyleven were good enough players, put them in within 5 years. If they weren't, keep them out so Cooperstown isn't watered down in 2 decades.

11 Non-Conference Games To Watch This Fall

With exactly 2 months until the start of the college football season and not a truly meaningful sporting event until then, it's time to look ahead. Last year nearly every preseason discussion was "Is this the year a non-BCS school makes the title game?" Or something similar. It got old. Part of me was glad #4 Boise State was upset by Nevada at the end of the year. They won't be in that position this year, but they do have a non-conference game against Georgia that's worth watching. Here's 10 more.


11. Missouri @ Arizona State (Sept. 9): Mizzou doesn't leave the state much in the non-con, only twice in the last 4 years. Quarterback play is also a question mark for the Tigers with the departure of Blaine Gabbert to the NFL. Starter James Franklin only attempted 14 passes last year, and a Friday night start against a pretty good Arizona State team will be a good early challenge.

10. Ohio State @ Miami (Sept. 17): Rematch of the 2001 National Title game as well as a bout last season in Columbus in which Ohio State won 36-24. Any match up of historic programs is sure to get ratings and this is no different. It will also be interesting to see how Ohio State is handling things post-Jim Tressel/Terrell Pryor.

9. Oregon State @ Wisconsin (Sept. 10): Wisconsin has a chance to be really, really good this year. The transfer of former NC State quarterback Russell Wilson to Madison is huge. After landing Wilson last week, Wisconsin's odds to win the BCS title dropped from 30-1 to 15-1. Beating Oregon State will get them a little closer to that goal.

8. Notre Dame @ Michigan (Sept. 10): Notre Dame is probably overrated again, and with a new coach, Michigan will have plenty of question marks as well. But aside from the historical aspects of the match up, there's something else to watch. It will be the first night game in Michigan's history.

                                                             Turn on the lights

7. Boise State @ Georgia (Atlanta, Sept. 3): Boise State won't make the national game this year, but they do know how to knock off top BCS teams, as they did to #10 Virginia Tech last season. Georgia isn't as good as last year's Virginia Tech team, but they aren't bad. Probably just outside the top 25.

6. LSU @ West Virginia (Sept. 24): Any time a potential title contender travels to a hostile environment early in the year, it gets exciting. West Virginia has a new coach and won't be on any preseason polls while LSU should be in the top 5. The atmosphere in Morgantown will give this one some drama, though.

5. Alabama @ Penn State (Sept. 10): National title contender from the SEC West traveling to a rough environment to face a fringe top-25 team? Sounds familiar. However, this match up gets the nod in the head coaching and home field advantage departments.

        

4. Florida State @ Florida (Nov. 26): This has the potential to be #1 on the list, but things have to fall into place just right. Regardless, Florida State is looking to repeat last year's 31-7 rout. Florida's new head coach and former Texas D coordinator Will Muschamp knows pressure, but now he's the head guy in Gainesville.

3. Texas A&M @ Arkansas (Cowboys Stadium Oct. 1): The former Southwest Conference foes should be in the top 15 heading into the season, but both loss key players from last year's teams. Arkansas is replacing quarterback Ryan Mallett while A&M linebacker Von Miller was the second overall pick in this year's draft. Both teams also share the misfortune of having title contenders within their divisions (Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama). Both teams should still be ranked heading into this one, though.

2. Oregon @ LSU (Cowboys Stadium Sept. 3): Two top-5 teams selling out this monstrosity will be awesome.

Oregon fans bought 15,000 tickets, only to be outdone by the 37,000 snatched up by LSU. The remaining tickets were bought pretty quickly, and if I wasn't biased, this would be the #1 game to watch by far. But I am, so it's not.

1. Oklahoma @ Florida State (Sept. 17): Florida State got pounded by Oklahoma last year in Norman, 47-17. They went on to win 10 games and return 20/22 starters from last year. Aside from quarterback Christian Ponder, everyone else is back. They've also had a top 10 recruiting class each of the last 4 years. With the returning starters as well as the influx of top talent, The Seminoles are my pick to win the BCS title this year, IF they can get by top ranked OU in week 3.


                                    

Top 50 Coaching Jobs

The annual coaching hires and fires among college basketball coaches got me thinking. What are the 50 best college basketball head coaching jobs?

I looked at:

-Prestige
-Overall success
-Success the last decade
-Ability to recruit



First Class:

1) North Carolina
2) Kentucky
3) Kansas
4) Duke
5) UCLA
6) Indiana

Indiana barely made the first list, but they get in by reputation alone. At least for another 5 years.


Business Class: 

7) Louisville
8) Ohio State
9) Arizona
10) Michigan State
11) Syracuse
12) Illinois
13) Uconn
14) Villanova
15) Georgetown

16) Texas
17) Florida
18) Maryland
19) Pittsburgh
20) St. Johns
21) Notre Dame


Economy Class

22) Oklahoma
23) Marquette
24) North Carolina State
25) Wisconsin
26) Arkansas
27) Washington
28) Purdue
29) Oklahoma State


Stand By:

30) USC
31) Michigan
32) Stanford
33) LSU
34) Tennessee
35) Missouri
36) Memphis
37) Oregon
38) West Virginia
39) Texas A&M
40) Kansas State
41) Cincinnati
42) Clemson
43) Wake Forest
44) Vanderbilt
45) Butler
46) Alabama
47) Xavier
48) Georgia Tech
49) Virginia
59) Gonzaga

Bracket Predictions

My Super Bowl prediction was within 1 point, so I'll try this again.

There's still 2 days left of conference tournaments, but here's my bracket:

1 seeds:
Ohio State
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame

Team that could fall: Notre Dame

Ohio State and Kansas are locks. That's not changing one bit. Duke has a shot to steal a 1-seed from the other two, however. Especially with Pitt's 76-74 loss to Uconn today. Kemba Walker is nails, by the way. Big East Player of the Year, no question about it.

2's:
Duke
North Carolina
Purdue
Syracuse

Team that could jump up: Duke
Team that could fall: Syracuse

North Carolina's 12-1 ACC finish surprised everyone I think. Kendall Marshall's move to starting point guard played a big part in that run.

3's:
San Diego State
Uconn
BYU
Texas

Team that could jump up: San Diego State

4's:
Wisconsin
Florida
Louisville
Arizona

Teams that could fall: Arizona

5's:
Kentucky
St. Johns
West Virginia
Xavier

Team that could jump up: Kentucky

6's:
Texas A&M
Georgetown
UNLV
Vanderbilt

Team that could jump up: Texas A&M
Teams that could drop: UNLV, Vanderbilt

7's:
Old Dominion
Kansas State
Cincinnati
Temple

8's:
Missouri
George Mason
UCLA
Utah State



The top 4 seeds were fairly easy to choose from. After that it got a little tedious, but we'll see what happens on Sunday at 5.

Big 12 Wrap Up

Back in early January I predicted the Big 12 standings here.

What I knew all along:

-Kansas would capture its 7th straight Big 12 title, albeit a very tough road after trailing Texas by 2 games midway through the conference schedule.

-Rick Barnes would pull a Rick Barnes. The Longhorns started the Big 12 season 11-0 only to lay eggs against Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State. Way to go, Rick.

-Kansas State wasn't as good as everyone wanted to believe. However, they did rally big time after starting 2-5 in conference play to finish 4th. It's not the season they hoped for, but a Big 12 tournament 4-seed is better than the NIT.

-Texas Tech isn't very good at basketball. Shocking, considering their ridiculous home atmosphere down in Lubbock.

I had no clue:

-Colorado would finish 8-8, good enough for a 5-seed in the Big 12 tournament. Tad Boyle can coach, so the Pac-10 better watch out. Also, Buffs guard Alec Burks will be in the NBA sooner rather than later.

Here's how they finished:


1) Kansas: (14-2) Predicted finish: (1st)

2) Texas (13-3) (2nd)

3) Texas A&M: (10-6) (4th)

4) Kansas State (10-6) (5th)

5) Colorado: (8-8) (10th)

6) Missouri: (8-8) (3rd)

7) Baylor: (7-9) (6th)

8) Nebraska: (7-9) (8th)

9) Oklahoma State: (6-10) (9th)

10) Oklahoma: (5-11) (12th)

11) Texas Tech: (5-11) (11th)

12) Iowa State: (3-13) (7th)


So I was perfect on 5 teams, within 1 spot on 3 teams, and missed badly on Colorado, Iowa State, and Missouri. I would predict the Big 12 Tournament which starts in 9 hours, but frankly, I don't care about conference tournaments.

The Big Least

I hear every year how The Big East is the most amazing basketball conference in the history of basketball conferences. Sure, they have a lot of teams getting into the tournament, but the conference is home to nearly every team on the eastern seaboard. Of course they get more teams in.

But what do they do in March?

I looked up Big Least performances in the NCAA tournament since its expansion to 16 teams in 2005 and I wasn't surprised.

-The obvious number is the zero national champions.
-Even with a much larger conference, they've only had the most Elite 8 teams once. (4 teams in 2009)
-They had 2 Final Four teams in 2009, but the Big 10 and SEC have done the same. (2005 and 2006)

And because conferences have different amounts of teams, I looked at percentages.

-The Big 10, not the Big Least, has had the highest percentage (from 2005-present) with 27% of its teams in the 2005 Elite 8.
-The Big 10 also had 18% of its members make the Final Four in 2005. The SEC had 16% of its members make the Final Four in 2006. Both are above the Big Least's best year, which was 12% in 2009.

When averaged out from 2005 until now:

-The Big Least has had 4% of its teams make the Final Four, tied for 3rd with the SEC and PAC 10.
-The ACC has had more with 5%.
-The Big 10 has the most with 7%.


In title games since 2005:

-Big 10 is 0-2
-Pac 10 is 0-1 
-Big 12 is 1-0.
-SEC is 2-0
-ACC is 3-0

The Big Least hasn't made the title game since expanding to 16 teams in 2005.


I don't see that changing this year either. The Big Least once again has a lot of good teams like Pittsburgh, Villanova, Syracuse, Notre Dame, and St. Johns. They might even get 11 teams in the tournament.

But don't expect any of them to win it all.

Speaking of baseball....

 Here's what MLB needs to do. Preferably yesterday.


1) Get rid of the DH. Sorry, David Ortiz. If you can't even play first base, it's time to retire. Believe me, I played first base. It's not hard at all.

Don't look shocked. Grab a glove.

2) Reverse the All-Star game rule. That game shouldn't mean a thing, and I think 90% of Nostradamus I mean Bud Selig's motivation was to erase the 2002 All-Star debacle. Great idea, Bud. Next time I get a paper cut I'll cut my leg off.

This sums up Bud's tenure pretty well.
 

3) Contract the regular season. 162 games is way too long. I'd be okay with between 135 and 145 games. June baseball is terrible. The honeymoon from Opening Day is over and the pennant races are 3 months away.

4) Fix inter-league play. Last year, the Cardinals played the Mariners, Angels, A's, Royals, and Blue Jays. What? Why not switch the Blue Jays for the Rangers to play the entire AL West? I like how the NFL schedules its games. 1st place teams should match up with the other division's 1st place team, etc. Then throw in a rivalry series if you want. Under that rule, the Cardinals would play the Yankees, White Sox, A's, and Royals in 2011.

5) Handle the steroid situation completely different. MLB didn't begin steroid testing until 2001 I believe. What exactly did they expect? This quote explains the steroid era perfectly. "Commissioner Fay Vincent sends a memo to each team announcing that steroids have been added to the league’s banned list. No testing plan is announced." Maybe they went by scouts honor or something.
Here's how they fix it:
Label about 1988-2010 the steroid era in the Hall of Fame and elect the guys who put up the numbers. Roger Clemens and Andy Petite showed us that pitchers were doing the stuff too. Who can blame them if baseball decided not to test them for over 10 years? So A-Rod and Clemens are both juiced and face each other. Who wins? I call it a wash. Instead of Clemens throwing a 94 MPH fastball and A-Rod hitting a 405 foot homer, Clemens is throwing 97 and A-Rod hits a 425 foot homer. No one had an advantage, the skills were just increased. And if these guys were so evil, why are they on Hall of Fame ballots? And when the hallowed records from past eras are brought into the discussion, I laugh.
I don't disagree that juiced players had advantages in breaking records, but you know who else had advantages in breaking records?

Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Joe DiMaggio.  They never faced black or latin players. Let's see all the pitchers they didn't have to face:
-Bob Gibson
-Satchel Paige
-Juan Marichal
-Pedro Martinez

The pitchers were no different. Christy Mathewson, Lefty Grove, Walter Johnson, and Cy Young never had to face guys like:
-Josh Gibson
-Roberto Clemente
-Albert Pujols
-Manny Ramirez
-Willie Mays
-Frank Robinson
and on and on and on...

Players in the pre-WWII era didn't seem to have a problem with baseball denying black and latin players a chance to play with them. Why crucify guys who took advantage of this guy for a decade?

6) Let this guy in the Hall of Fame:

 I know Pete Rose was an idiot, and probably still is, but any baseball Hall of Fame void of arguably its all-time best hitter is incomplete. I don't have any stories of any Hall of Fame members with questionable morals, but they're out there. It isn't the Hall of Very Good and it isn't the White House. Let the guy in.

Blame your owner, not theirs

Why do people blame the Yankees when their small-market owner is cheap? I hear this a lot, especially as Spring training is getting underway and everyone's making predictions for the season. If you listen to some people, you'd think teams with lower payrolls are barred from winning anything, and the Yankees and Red Sox are guaranteed a World Series every year.

The Yankees have had baseball's No. 1 payroll for the last 10 seasons. All that money got them 1 title.
In that same time period, the Marlins have just as many rings. They won it all  in 2003 with a payroll of $48 million, good enough for 25th in the league.

In the last 10 years, the average payroll of the World Series winner is 10th in league, barely in the top third of payrolls.

How about the Mets? They had the National League's highest payroll every year from 2003-2009, only to miss the playoffs all but one of those years. And when they did make the post-season, they lost in the 2006 NLCS.

Just last season, the Texas Rangers won the AL with a payroll of only $55 million, 27th in baseball.
They did that with smart decisions by this guy,

 good defense and great pitching.




So it can be done. And for small-market fans are upset with their team's payroll while watching the Yankees and Red Sox pick up whoever they want, don't blame guys like the Steinbrenners.

What's wrong with spending your own money to make your team better? Nothing but bitterness from fans with cheap owners like David Glass of the Royals or Bob Nutting of the Pirates.


So don't blame the Yankees for spending their own money in an attempt to get better. Blame the owners who take fans' money and hoard it while filling their roster with AAA-caliber players.

They all have plenty of money. It's not the Yankees or Red Sox's fault they actually spend it.

Your Team Can't Beat Mine

Quarterback- 
Joe Montana: You Play to win the game. Montana did this, winning 4 Super Bowls and 3 Super Bowl MVP's.

Backups: Dan Marino, John Elway, Brett Favre.


Running Backs-
Barry Sanders: He only played 10 seasons before shocking everyone with his 1999 retirement, but he went to 10 Pro Bowls. He had 99 touchdowns in those 10 seasons as well as 15,269 yards. Barry Sanders is the ultimate 'what if' player. Him and Bo Jackson.

Walter Payton: Second all-time in rushing yards (16,726), 4th in touchdowns with 110. He went to 9 Pro Bowls as well.

Backups: Bo Jackson, Marshall Faulk, Emmitt Smith.


Receivers-
Jerry Rice: Obviously. He's the all-time leader in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He also went to 13 Pro Bowls.

Cris Carter: Top-5 All-Time in receiving touchdowns (4th) and receptions (3rd). Never had the chance to play with a truly great quarterback though.

Tim Brown (88-04): 100 career touchdowns, 14,934 total yards and 9 pro bowls. Member of the All-1990's team and the College Football Hall of Fame. Also owns a Heisman from his days at Notre Dame.

Backups: Isaac Bruce, Randy Moss, Steve Largent.

I was really surprised to see that Terrell Owens is 2nd all-time in both receiving yards and touchdowns. There's still no way I'd put him on any all-time 'team.' He doesn't like that word anyway.

Offensive Line-

Will Shields

Jonathan Ogden

Randal McDaniel

Bruce Mathews

Orlando Pace

Cornerbacks:

Rod Woodson: The greatest of all-time in my opinion. 71 interceptions on his way to 11 Pro Bowls mainly with the Steelers and Raiders.

Dick 'Night Train' Lane: An incredible 14 interceptions as a rookie in 1952 for the LA Rams. Finished with 68 for his career, along with 7 Pro Bowls. Also gets points for having the best nickname on the team, maybe ever.

Backups: Deion Sanders, Champ Bailey.

Linebackers-

This was the toughest position to pick by far.

Lawrence Taylor: Having LT on the list wasn't hard, though. He tops nearly every list of great linebackers, going to 10 Pro Bowls while becoming only the 2nd defensive player to be named league MVP. Also had one of the nastiest hits of all time.

Ray Lewis: His play backs up his mouth, most definitely. The best middle linebacker of the last 25 years. He went to 11 Pro Bowls and won a Super Bowl with the 2000 Ravens, leading an arguably top-5 defense of all-time that season.

Mike Singletary: Definitely a better linebacker than coach. He was a member of the All-1980's team, went to 10 Pro Bowls and was a first team all-pro 7 times.

Derrick Thomas: I think Derrick Thomas gets overlooked when talking about all-time great linebackers. In a career that was shortened by his death in 2000, Thomas was one of the best pass-rushing linebackers off all-time, getting 126 sacks while playing for the Chiefs.

Backups: Dick Butkus, Jack Ham, Jack Lambert.

Defensive Line-

Bruce Smith: No. 1 overall pick by the Bills in 1985, he's the all-time leader with 200 career sacks. Went to 11 Pro Bowls, and is a member of the 1980's and 1990's All-Decade teams.

Reggie White: The "Minister of Defense." White went to 13-straight Pro Bowls as a member of the Eagles and Packers. Member of the NFL 75th Anniversary All-Time team. 198.5 career sacks is only topped by Bruce Smith.

Deacon Jones: Allegedly coined the term 'sack.' Jones played before sacks began being counted in 1982, but is known as one of the greatest defenders of all-time as a member of the Los Angeles Rams in the 1970's.

Backups: Alan Page, Joe Greene, Michael Strahan.


Safeties-
Ronnie Lott: Considered by many the greatest safety of all-time, Lott could play safety or cornerback. He was also a member of the All-1980's and All-1990's teams, while winning 4 Super Bowls with the 49ers.

Steve Atwater: One of the more underrated players in NFL history. Atwater had an incredible 1,180 tackles in only 11 seasons. He went to 8 Pro Bowls and won 2 Super Bowl rings with the Broncos.


Backups: Troy Polamalu, Paul Krause, Jack Tatum.


Kicker-
Adam Vinatieri: This is one of the easier decisions to make. He had 3 Super Bowl-winning field goals with the Patriots, and 2 of those were kicked as time expired. Also has another ring with the Colts.

Punter- This team doesn't need a punter.

Coach: Vince Lombardi

Random NCAA musings

Selection Sunday is 3 weeks away. If I knew how to put a countdown on here, I would. But I can't, so trust me. It's 3 weeks away.

It seems like nobody wants that No. 1 ranking right now. After Wisconsin toppled previous No. 1 Ohio State last Saturday, Kansas took over on Monday, only to lose the same night to Kansas State. No. 2 Texas then proceeded to lose to Nebraska yesterday. I guess No. 4 Pittsburgh felt left out, because they also lost on Saturday, falling to St. Johns on a last second shot. Then after all that, Ohio State lost again today to Purdue. CBS tells me the last time the top 4 teams lost in the same week was in November of 2003. Not that being No. 1 means anything right now, but the race for a No. 1 seed is on.

I think we've got 5 teams fighting for the 1 seeds.

-Ohio State (25-2): 2 losses, but both on the road to top-15 teams. Losing 2 out of 3 would worry me, but I'm not a Buckeye fan and a 1 seed is still a lock.
-Kansas (25-2): Only one bad loss so far.
-Texas (23-4): Bad losses to USC and Nebraska, but nice wins over North Carolina and Kansas.
-Pittsburgh (24-3): Not any truly bad losses, and wins over Texas, Uconn, Georgetown, and Villanova.
-Duke (24-2): Bad loss to Florida State and got blown out by St. Johns last month. Taken care of everyone else though.

Finishing the regular season No. 1 doesn't matter, as the final No. 1 ranked team heading into the tournament has won it all only twice since 1996. But being a No. 1 seed is important. Since 2001, a No. 1 seed has won the title 7 times, including the last 4 years.


Want to make the Final Four? You better be a top 5 seed. Since 2001, only one team has made the Final Four that was lower than a 5-seed. That was 11-seed George Mason in 2006.

Here's the Final Four Appearances by seed the last 10 years:

1: 18 (7 national titles)
2: 9 (1 title)
3: 6 (2 titles)
4: 2 
5: 4
11: 1


Teams likely to be outside the top 4-seeds you don't want to see:
Big names:
 -Kentucky: They have enough raw talent (Potentially 3 first round picks this year in Doron Lamb, Brandon Knight and Terance Jones) to surprise anyone, and they're #9 according to KenPom.
-Washington: 10th in KenPom's rankings and they can score better than almost anyone. (2nd in the country with 85 points a game.)
-North Carolina: See Kentucky, but add a Hall of Fame coach.

Mid-majors you don't want to see:
-Utah State: Probable 9 or 10 seed who's hung around the top 25 all year and is currently 17th in KenPom.
-George Mason: 20th in KenPom with the nation's 25th best defense (61 points a game) and a coach with Final Four experience.
-UNLV: Wins over Virginia Tech and Kansas State and currently 28th in KenPom.
 -Cleveland State: No signature wins here, just a hunch. Norris Cole can score at ease, getting 20 points a game. His ability to do this, should put fear in the 3 or 4 seed which faces Cleveland State, assuming they make the tournament.

The Big 12 season

is about 2/3 of the way over. Here's what I know:

-Kansas and Texas are in a different stratosphere.
-Iowa State is worse than I thought.
-Kansas State is worse than 99% of the country thought.

Here were my predictions on the eve of conference play starting.


Here's how we look with 5 or 6 games left for everyone:

1) Texas (10-0, predicted finish last month: 2nd): The Longhorns have looked other-worldy for most of Big 12 play, beating Missouri and Kansas by double digits and sweeping Texas A&M. A No.1 seed looks to be in the cards with 6 games left and the Big 12 tournament remaining. Prediction: Final Four

2) Kansas (9-1, 1st): Kansas has won its last 5 games by a combined 92 points. The only road block remaining looks to be the March 5th matchup in Columbia with Mizzou. Prediciton: Final Four

This is where it gets interesting. Teams 3-8 are all within 2 games of one another.

3) Texas A&M (6-4, 4th): A&M was embarrassed twice by Texas by a combined 41 points. Losses to Nebraska and Colorado don't help either. Prediction: NCAA 2nd round.

4) Baylor (6-5, 6th):Lacedarius Dunn can score with the best of them, getting 21 points a game. If he decided to pass every once in a while the Bears could be a lot more dangerous. Freshman Perry Jones is a future NBA big man that no one has heard of because of Dunn's separation anxiety with Mr. Wilson. Prediciton: NCAA 2nd round.

5) Missouri (5-5, 3rd): Missouri's problems are pretty cut and dry. They don't win on the road. Call it coaching, lack of discipline, or a lack of calls they can't get away from Columbia. I don't know, but I hope they know the NCAA tournament isn't played at Mizzou arena. Prediction: NCAA 2nd round.

6) Colorado (5-6, 10th): I missed on this one. Alec Burks is better than I thought, and the Buffs look to be a year away from doing damage in the new Pac-12. They might not get that chance, though. Burks has said he's leaving early if projected as an NBA lottery pick. He's 18th here. Prediction: NIT.

7) Nebraska (4-6, 8th): They can't score, but the Huskers have the Big 12's best defense and the 10th best defense in the country. Head coach Doc Sadler might need an NCAA tourney appearance to save his job, however. He's failed to make the big dance, and with Nebraska's move to the Big 10 next year, I think AD Tom Osborne wants to start fresh in 2011-2012. Prediction: NIT.

8) Oklahoma State (4-6, 12th): The Cowboys aren't as bad as I thought, but they aren't that good either. Their best win was a 76-60 defeat of Missouri on Feb. 3rd. Sitting at 16 wins, they'll probably need 6 more to make the tournament. But with games with Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas, and Baylor remaining, that ain't happening. Prediciton: NIT.

9) Kansas State (4-6, 5th): From No. 3 to NIT. I knew the loss of Denis Clemente was going to severly hamper the Wildcats' hopes of repeating last year's Elite 8 run. It has, and the wheel's have been falling off the last few months. Dominique Sutton transferred. Former McDonald's AA Wally Judge flat-out quit. Then last night, when Rodney McGruder apparently nailed a 3-pointer to drop Colorado, it was .01 second late. It's been that kind of season in Manhattan. Prediction: NIT.

10) Oklahoma (4-6, 9th): Jeff Capel isn't a great coach unless he has future NBA stars on his Roster. The only decent conference wins have come over Baylor and Colorado. I don't see things in Norman improving anytime soon. Prediciton: CBI

11) Texas Tech (3-7, 11th): Alright, I get it. Pat Knight's dad is an all-time great coach. Unfortunately, none of those skills got passed down to his son. Knight hasn't done anything since taking over for Bob in Lubbock. He's got to go after this season. Prediciton: Watching the tourney on CBS.

12) Iowa State: (1-9, 7th): "The mayor" Fred Hoiberg is struggling in his first season coaching in the Big 12. He's got one of the smallest rotations in the country, and he has about 15 guys who transferred to ISU and are sitting out this season because of NCAA rules. Next year will be better in Ames. Prediciton: CBI.